Study On The Method Of Macro-Economic Appraisal Of Road Infrastructure Investment Founded On Transportation Demand Forecasting

Transportation is one of the most important fundamental industries to the national economy and society. Road infrastructure is the condition for economic and social development. To increase road infrastructure investment is necessary to economic and social development at present and in the coming periods. The Macro-economic Analysis suggestion is the main gist for investor when making decision. Carrying on system research to the macro-economic apprisal or evaluation of road construction project has significant meaning, regarding to make scientific project investing decision, to guarantees rationality and highly efficiency of the national investment, to support the continuable development of the national economy and society, and so on.This paper begins with the existing Macro-economic Analysis and progresses of road construction project. After analyzing the flaw of existing outcome, the paper indicated limitations of the macro-economic analysis methods for road infrastructure investment (concerning "Macro-Economic Appraisal of Road Infrastructure Investment Founded on Traffic Forecasting", which is the branch of the road network planning research use trffice forecasting methods). According to these, this paper suggests to research on the methods of "Macro-Economic Appraisal of Road Infrastructure Investment Founded on Transportation Demand Forecasting" in order to conquer theoretic limitations, give investor rational advice, enhance resource use efficiency, and support economy and society development.Firstly, this paper set macro-economic analysis goals, set masterstroke as transportation demand, and founded the macro-economic appraisal frame of road infrastructure investments under Cost Benefit Analysis methods. Secondly, it multianalysis the intrinsic relationship among the benefits, transportation demands and economic and social development, and after this procedure it re-defined economic benefits which contains direct benefits and conditional benefits and economic costs which including construction costs, operating costs and external costs. It also analysis the connotation and the mechanism of the direct benefits and the conditional benefits, respectively. Thirdly, the paper tried to build the benefits and costs estimate basic models. Lastly, the paper choose partial effect-target as appraisal standards.