Study On Forecasting Method Of Regional Freight Transportation Demand

With the constant deepening of reform and opening-up of our country and completion of socialist market economy system, regional freight transportation is playing an important role in producing, consumption leading, economic restructuring and style changing of economic increase. Regional freight transportation demand forecast is an important link in regional freight transportation system planning and provides essential base data for making regional freight transportation developing policy, ascertaining freight transportation infrastructure construction scale and analyzing the freight transportation market trend.The thesis deeply discusses the characteristics and the effects in four macroscopically aspects upon the regional freight transportation demand, tried to study the generation mechanism of regional freight transportation demand from different points. Then the author studies the principle of making the quantitative index and the fundamental theory of regional freight transportation demand. The author applies the method of qualitative and quantitative prediction combining in regional freight transportation demand. The author selects the moving average model, the exponential smoothing model, the regression model, the gray model, the combination forecast model based on IOWA operator and the improved combination forecasting method and based on IOWA operator to predict regional freight transportation quantity.The last part is a case analysis for Shanghai. The thesis selects LINEST to analyze regress during estimating regression forecast model. The thesis selects MATLAB software to analyze regress during estimating the gray model and the combination forecast model. At the end of the thesis, verified by an example, the improved combination forecasting method is better than the original combination forecasting method based on IOWA operator. Forecasting accuracy is improved effectively.