The Study On Changes In The Size Of China's Highway Land

As the basic situation of China nowadays is of huge population, insufficient farmland and extreme shortage of land resource, therefore it is quite of influentially practical significance to study the dynamic movement and rational usage of roading land.Based upon basic definition of roading land, this paper discussed the calculation methodology about land occupation of road construction, and analyzed roading land's history and structure features. Depending on above information the author brings forward a fundamental opinion: although road construction in economically underdeveloped areas is expanding obviously, land usage efficiency is of relatively low level.Choose 18 road land influencing factors from the "Statistical Yearbook of China" and select Transportation, storage and postal industry output, Road freight, The total civilian vehicle, The population of the tertiary industry employment, Transportation, storage and postal industry investment in fixed assets and Financial expenditure from them with Principal Component Analysis.Establish multiple linear regression model and test it, found it is not valid and need to improve. Establish a more rational and effective ridge regression model eventually.Based on the ridge regression model and road development plan to predict the scale of China's highway land from 2010 to 2020. Model-based forecast results show that in 2010 and 2020 highway land will reach 6.22 million hectares and 9.94 million hectares; Planning-based forecast results show that in 2010 and 2020 highway land will reach 6.35 million hectares and 10.24 million hectares. The latter is higher than the former shows that the highway is expected to reach development goals of land resources required for the number of occupied slightly higher than a reasonable quantity of land required.It suggest that China's highways will not be the intensive use of land from 2010-2020.31 provinces of the land for the sum of the carrying capacity of roads, output efficiency and the efficiency of input-output analysis shows that intensive use of land for road level is closely related to the level of regional economic development. Economically developed eastern part with higher carrying capacity, output efficiency and efficiency of input-output, the level of intensive use is higher too. But economically underdeveloped central and westernt areas with lower carrying capacity, output efficiency and efficiency of input-output, Highway land use is still extensive, There is still a long way to go to improve their efficiency in the use of land resources and the level of intensive use .