Research For Price Routine And Price Risk Prevention Of Copper Futures Of SHFE

Along with copper is more and more abroad applied in various industry, China becomes the biggest copper consumed country, and Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) also becomes the second copper futures exchange market in the world. Because the influence of risk factor, the copper futures price of SHFE, the vane of the price in the copper merchandise market is in fluctuation. Because of that fluctuation, which takes indeterminacy to the producer and consumer, we should research the operation law and the price risk prevention of the copper futures price of SHFE deeply.The object of research in this thesis is the operation routine and price risk prevention of the copper futures price of SHFE. It introduces the futures theory, price fluctuation, risk management, price risk and futures exchange in chapter 1 and chapter 2. It analyzes the basic situation for copper market of our country, including copper resource distribution of China, status of imports and exports and the current situation of copper futures market in chapter 3. In chapter 4, it researches the formation mechanism of the copper future price of SHFE, introduces the formation basic the futures price simply, analyzes that the copper futures price of SHFE has positive correlation with copper spot price and LME copper futures price. The chapter 5 chooses March copper futures contact day closing price of SHFE to analyze the fluctuation of futures price. At the same time, the Eviews3.0 researches income time list and basic statistics of the copper futures price of SHFE, and tests the normality, self-correlation and condition heteroscedasticity. The results show that there is tip front and thickness tail in the income list of the copper futures price of SHFE, but not has self-correlation and condition heteroscedasticity. It also proves that the copper futures price of SHFE doesn't have law and changes with time go by. In chapter 6, it explores supply-demand relationship of international and domestic market, macro-economy, production cost, finance, imports-exports tax and natural disasters. In chapter7, it establishes the copper futures price of SHFE risk prevention system, basing on the copper futures price of SHFE risk causes, which including copper overseas development strategy, establishing copper resources reserve system, establishing the copper futures price of SHFE early warning mechanism and the copper futures of SHFE rights.The significance is funding copper futures price move routine, supplying theoretical support for establishing and perfecting copper price making in domestic. Analyzing risk factor which arousing copper futures price fluctuation, and establishing copper futures price prevention system.