A Study On The Influence Of Real Estate Price Fluctuation On The Formation Of Financial Risk In China

Since the reform of the commercial housing system in 1980 s,the real estate market has developed rapidly and has gradually become the pillar industry of our national economy.However,the high price of housing also restricts the economic development to a large extent.With the gradual slowing down of China's macro economic growth rate,the related problems of housing bubble began to enter people's horizons.High house prices overdraw the sustainable development of the economic system,and the short-term sharp decline of house prices is also a great harm to China's economy in the transition period.Therefore,to prevent the possible financial risks caused by real estate price fluctuations has become an inevitable topic of concern.According to the above background,this paper summarizes the current situation of real estate price fluctuation and financial risk in the real estate market.The current situation of real estate price fluctuation shows that the overall house price is fluctuating and rising,the regional difference of house price fluctuation is large,and the diffusion effect of house price fluctuation is significant,while the current situation of financial risk in the real estate market shows that the proportion of real estate value in the total assets of the family is too high,the value of collateral is declining and the risk of liquidity shortage.At the theoretical level,it clarifies the specific impact mechanism of the real estate price fluctuation on the formation of financial risk in China,and analyzes the logical relationship between the real estate price fluctuation and financial risk from the perspectives of the rise and fall of the real estate price,and clarifies that the rise of the real estate price mainly brings about the continuous accumulation of financial risk,while the fall of the real estate price will release the accumulated financial risk ? Based on the theoretical correlation analysis,this paper summarizes 28 indicators of financial risk in China from 2009 to 2018 according to the dimensions of macro-economy,banking,securities market,real estate market and foreign exchange market,and constructs China's financial risk index by principal component analysis,and empirically analyzes the financial risk profile of China's real estate price volatility based on VECM model The result shows that the real estate price fluctuation can be transmitted to the capital market,and then induce serious financial risks.Finally,according to the relevant conclusions of this paper,a series of corresponding policy recommendations are put forward to deal with the financial risks caused by real estate price fluctuations.