Research On Factors Influencing Gold Price Fluctuation And Risk Early Warning

Under the trend of global economic integration to strengthen gradually,because of the erratic international conflict,frequent fluctuations of domestic capital markets,gold has become an important option for many investors,central Banks are also constantly increased gold as foreign exchange reserves.Because the market supply of gold is relatively stable in a certain period of time,the fluctuation of gold price mainly comes from the change of demand side.Therefore,to analyze the influence factors of the price of gold from the demand side,understand the factors influencing the fluctuations in the price of gold specific requirements,and to explore its transmission mechanism,thus the gold price volatility risk early warning research,to help the central bank and investors more effective guard against fluctuations in the price of gold,has strong practical significance.First of all,the paper on the gold price fluctuations on the influence factors of existing literature,classifying influence factor from the demand side,points out that the price of gold on the long-term mainly influenced by official gold reserves requirements,in the short term,mainly affected by the factors such as dollar demand,stock demand.Secondly,the paper makes theoretical analysis on the long-term and short-term factors influencing gold price and the transmission mechanism.Analysis pointed out that the total supply of gold in a certain period of time remained relatively stable,so the gold price fluctuations mainly affected by demand change,based on factors that affect gold price volatility and its transmission mechanism is analyzed.Different influencing factors have different influence on gold price due to their different transmission mechanism.Then,the paper makes an empirical analysis of the long-term and short-term factors influencing gold price.Taking 1973 to 2017 as the sample range,it is pointed out that official gold reserves can explain the fluctuation of gold prices through co-integration test and granger causality test.On January 31,2007 to 31 December 2017 as the sample interval,using multiple linear regression model,select the spot price of gold in London as the dependent variable,the dollar index and other factors,such as gold futures prices set up linear regression equation,the empirical conclusions:gold futures prices for gold prices have very strong positive leading relationship,WTI crude oil spot prices and a strong positive relationship between the price of gold,the dollar index and the s&p 500 index is negative correlation relationship with the gold price,but the correlation is relatively weak.Finally,influence the gold price volatility risk analysis in stages,according to the history of the gold price volatility gold prices set p,using the risk early warning theory and based on factor analysis to identify the alternative factors that affects the price of gold and futures factors and macro environment factors,through the establishment of the price of gold and common factor linear regression model to find gold prices and the linear relationship between the common factor,and the gold price volatility risk early warning system,put forward effective risk prevention measures.