Empirical Test And Adaptability Analysis Of Monetary Policy Rules In China

The evolvement of the research on monetary policy rules is an important breakthrough in the field of the economics of money and finance and the macro-economics these years. A monetary policy rule not only can guide the central bank to make feasible monetary policies but can improve the effectiveness, credibility and transparency of monetary policies. At the same time, it provides an observational basic framework to evaluate monetary policies, through which people can measure the effect and the influence on the social welfare of monetary policies. Therefore, on the basis of western monetary policy rules, this paper uses China's data to analyze China's monetary policy. We hope we can give some useful suggestion and try to find or build suitable monetary policy rules for China.This paper consists of four parts:Chapter 1: We expatiate on the monetary policy conduction mechanism and the medium-aims. We also make a review on the evolvement of the theories and the controversy over the choice of monetary policy between "rule or discretion".Chapter 2: We discuss the theory of monetary targeting rules and its practice in china. We also make a test of the correlation between the money supply and the Macroeconomic Goal.Chapter 3: We make a test of the adaptability of the Taylor-Type Monetary Policy Rules in China. The result shows that: China's market interest is related with inflation, but the coefficient is less than zero. We also find that China's market interest is not related with the economic growth, these suggest that: China's market interest had limited impact on the macroeconomic, which has weak effect.Chapter 4: We discuss the international practice of inflation targeting rules and its adaptability in China. And we come to such conclusion: the inflation targeting rules is not suitable for China's current macroeconomic.Chapter 5: Conclusions and policy suggestions.