Volume Forecasting And Transportation Organization Of The Nanchang-Jiujiang Intercity Railway

In order to fulfill the increasing transportation demand brought forth by the rapid economic growth of Jiangxi province, and to enlarge the transportation capacity of the Nanchang-Jiujiang railway channel, a new intercity railway, which is parallel to the existing Beijing-Kowloon line, will be built between the two cities. In this paper, we used the four-stage method to forecast the future carrying volume of the Nanchang-Jiujiang intercity railway, which helped enhance the efficiency and capability of the Nanchang-Jiujiang railway channel. Besides the carrying volume trend forecast, we also considered the possible transferred volume and attracted volume caused by the transportation quality improvement, which increased the validity of volume forecasting. We further analyzed the effect of the Nanchang-Jiujiang intercity railway in the railway network and the characteristic of its technology and equipment. Based on the volume forecasting and the above analysis, we studied the transportation assignment between the new intercity passenger-dedicated line and the existing railways, and established the transportation plan of this new railway line.The main contents of this paper are as follow:A review of the methodologies for railway transportation forecasting; forecasting the passenger/freight carrying volume of the Nanchang-Jiujiang railway channel using the four-stage method; deciding the passenger/freight flow rate and the number of passenger/freight trains; analyzing the possibility of inter-line operation for the low-speed trains in Nanchang-Jiujiang intercity passenger-dedicated line; establishing the principles for transportation assignment and comparing the transportation assignment for the intercity line and existing lines; establishing the transportation organizing plan for the Nanchang-Jiujiang intercity railway.Based on the analysis, we are able to draw the following conclusions:1. In regard of volume forecasting for new passenger-dedicated lines that are parallel to the existing lines, three factors must be taken into consideration: trend volume, transferred volume, and attracted volume that are caused by the speed and quality improvement. 2. Transportation assignment between the passenger-dedicated lines and the existing line should be based on the following principles: to enhance the transportation efficiency, to fulfill the transportation demand, to consist with the design standards of the line, and to increase the travelling speed.3. The transportation assignment we established is that the intra-line intercity passenger trains and the high speed inter-line passenger trains operate on the intercity line, while the normal speed passenger trains and the freight trains operate on the existing lines.