Analysis On The Demand Elasticity Of Intercity Passenger Transport In The Initial Operation Stage Of Intercity Railway

In recent years,the development of urban agglomeration economy brings about the rapid growth of intercity passenger demand,which has put forward higher requirements for the development of intercity passenger transport modes.As the index for describing the sensitivity of passenger demand to the price change of transportation,the elasticity coefficient of passenger demand can effectively reflect the degree of urgency and sensitivity of people towards the opening and operation of the intercity railway.By studying the elasticity coefficient of intercity passenger demand,we can not only fully grasp the features and change patterns of intercity passenger demand,but also optimize the allocation of intercity railway resources and scientific layout of railway network planning,and promote the benign interaction between the intercity railway and the development of urban agglomerations,which has vital significance in practice.Therefore,combined with the supply and demand theory of the transportation economics,this research aims to realize the prediction of the elasticity coefficient of passenger demand by looking into the deeper relationship between the elasticity coefficient of intercity railway passenger demand and major social and economic factors of city groups and their mechanism in the initial stage of operation.Firstly,the research introduces the concept,the service scope and functions of intercity railway,and then discusses the interaction,coordinated development and matching types of the intercity railway and urban agglomeration.It also systematically analyzes the influencing factors and the formation mechanism of intercity passenger travel demand,and points out that the social and economic development of urban agglomerations is the ultimate source of the intercity passenger demand and is the construction foundation of the intercity railway.Secondly,based on the supply and demand theory,along with the comprehensive passenger travel cost changes both before and after the intercity railway opened,the passenger demand elasticity coefficient in the operation areas is calculated by using the generalized cost function and the improved Logit sharing rate model.Then the calculation process of Shanghai-Hangzhou intercity railway is shown as an example.Thirdly,the research uses principal component analysis on twenty basic socio-economic factors selected and five comprehensive factors of 18 city pairs for index data extraction,and obtains eight variables as the input of the forecast model of the intercity passenger demand elasticity coefficient.Then,train the BP neural network model with the eight selected socio-economic indicators and the corresponding elasticity coefficient in the Intercity Railway operation areas as sample,and use Random Forest algorithm to further analyze the importance of various factors,to dig the deep-seated relationship between potential passenger demand and socio-economic development.Finally,according to the upcoming opening of the Beijing-Zhangjiakou Intercity Railway as an example,it has predicted the demand elasticity coefficient and certified the feasibility of the model,so as to provide useful advices on the development of cities during the developing period of intercity railway.