Study On Evaluating Investment Opportunity Of Domestic-investment BOT Project

BOT is an acronym "Build-Operate-Transfer" in English, means "construction - operation - transfer", known as the "franchise mode of financing." in my country. BOT is mainly the construction of infrastructure as a solution to shortage of funds and improve its operational efficiency, it has been applied in many countries widely. However, based on many shortcomings when using the BOT of foreign capital, as well as many domestic enterprises, especially private enterprises are growing, expanding over the years, domestic enterprises have accumulated a large amount of surplus funds to seek ways to invest, domestic-investment BOT provides a channel for investment. In addition, domestic-investment BOT has some of the unique advantages, so domestic BOT has become a mainstream in many countries. Evaluation of investment opportunities is crucial in domestic-investment BOT investment, it is an important stage in the process. The results of the assessment are an important reference value to judge the merits of a project to the project sponsors and the government, as well as items of syndicated loans or banks. Through studies, this article found that the study on evaluatinginvestment opportunity of domestic-investment BOT project is an academic gap now. Though many evaluation theory and methods about construction projects, but it can not guarantee the quality of the conclusion if used them simply for evaluating investment opportunity of domestic-investment BOT project. From the scientific decision-making perspective, evaluating investment opportunity of domestic-investment BOT project, in essence, belongs to multiple attribute decision making selection. When deal with this type of problem, the general decision-making process is to set up a evaluation index system for the first, then a scientific and rational approach is application to evaluation, a final conclusion is make from the evaluation results. From this standpoint, this paper is to explore scientific selection methods for the domestic-investment BOT project investment opportunities.Evaluation index system is an important aspect of the evaluation methods, a scientific and applicable index system is the basis of evaluation. Therefore, to establish a systematic evaluation index system is needed in the evaluation of investment opportunities. A scientific index system is able to make all participants understand the impact of factors simply, which to make accurate and reasonable choice to meet all the requirements in a short period of time. Based on this, this paper starts from the characteristics of BOT projects, as well as critical success factors, analyzing evaluation indicators that impact the investment opportunity selection of domestic-investment BOT project. After compared the main evaluation indicators and analyzed domestic-investment BOT critical success factors, the traditional project evaluation methods of investment decision-making as a breakthrough point for domestic-investment BOT project investment opportunities in the design of evaluation index system. At the same time, draw on existing research results, from environmental factors, financial factors, non-financial factors, construct a evaluation index system that containing the policy, market characteristics, the conditions of natural resources, construct ability, cost, income, expected rate of return, liquidity, product / Service characteristics, risk factors, technical ,11 core indicators and 36 specific indicators of evaluation index system.To make use of the evaluation index system evaluating the domestic-investment BOT project, it is not possible if in the absence of a scientific, rational and effective method of evaluation. In view of this, an existing evaluation methods- Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation is introduced and improved in this paper, proposed A / S-FOE method, and the mathematical model is set up to domestic-investment BOT project selecting investment opportunities.One of the major advantages to Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation is that it can both identify the main factors inherent and divided into system-level structure reasonably, so that implementation of complex systems problem can be evaluated. At the same time, Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation suited to better reflect the characteristics that did not accurately determine better. So the paper uses Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation as an evaluation method to domestic-investment BOT projects. But in the study it was found that the evaluate method of fuzzy evaluation matrix is arbitrary and not scientificalness. In addition, the evaluate method does not consider the true value preference behavior of decision-makers in depth also. At the same time, In view of entropy's main advantages, as well as the combination of the actual situation, this paper chooses entropy as the computing weight method to Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation index. In this paper, the Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation has been improved on the following three components: (1) Evaluation of the fuzzy matrix. In the study it was found that the evaluate method of fuzzy evaluation matrix is arbitrary and not scientificalness. In addition, the evaluate method does not consider the true value preference behavior of decision-makers in depth also. In fact, it is more in line with the characteristics of human behavior to judge and compare the objects fiducially .When constructing the judgment matrix, the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) compared the two elements based on some evaluation criteria. So this paper introduces the AHP to construct the fuzzy evaluation matrix. (2) In order to deal with AHP effectively, to get better decision-making conclusions, this paper uses Artificial Neural Network (ANN) to deal with such judgment matrix. ANN is a method that can get experts'value preferred from a variety of judge data, neurons it contains have a nonlinear data-processing capabilities, strong handle imprecise and inaccurate information artificial intelligence and higher calculation accuracy. (3) Application of the Entropy.In the process of project evaluation, the information of indexes contained needs to be considered. However, people know less about the index in practice, but this does not mean that these indexes are not important. In contrast, in some cases, these indexes are probably very important. Therefore, Shannon's Entropy is an ideal approach under the conditions that it can measure useful information of data provided. In view of entropy's main advantages, as well as the combination of the actual situation, this paper chooses entropy as the computing weight method to Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation index. In order to demonstrate the practicability of an A/S-FOE approach, the approach is applied to evaluate the real investment alternatives. Owing to the conclusion of its application study, the practicability and applicability of the approach verified. It is to be considered that the approach can solve real decision-making problem and the approach is valuable. Thus, its wide application to more problems of real world can be expected.