The Interaction Mechanism Of The Real Estate Prices And Macroeconomic Research

By means of real estate economics, macroeconomics and econometrics knowledge, this paper is mainly theoretical and empirical research on the interaction between real estate prices and macroeconomic. This paper analyzes the theoretical framework of Interaction between the two, and through regression analysis, and co-integration theory analysis of the empirical analysis of the national housing prices and macroeconomic indicators.This paper reviews the domestic and foreign scholars have done for the real estate prices and macroeconomic research, analysis shows that the theoretical basis of the real estate prices and macroeconomic, and ultimately selected housing sales prices and indices as the real estate price index, macroeconomic indicators selected for the gross domestic product, per capita consumption expenditure of urban households, urban residents per capita disposable income, fixed assets investment. Part of the empirical analysis first conducted a regression analysis, the final conclusion shows that the various indicators exist of multiple linear regression, the stepwise regression results show that the fixed assets investment in the various indicators has the most prominent impact on real estate price fluctuations. Then select the price of land in the fixed assets investment, it has the most closely relationship with real estate, and further empirical study on the land price index and the housing sales price index. The article selected the quarterly data of the tow indexes for2003-2010. The conclusions of Co-integration theory analysis to the two sets of data show that:short-term point of view, the housing sales price index (HP) is caused by Granger cause changes in the land transaction price index (LP), but the land transaction price index (LP) is not the Granger reason of the housing sales price index (HP); the long term they do not exist Granger causality.Finally, combined with theoretical and empirical analysis results, the article for Macro-control policies of our country puts forward some appropriate recommendations. I hope this research can be beneficial to the real estate market participants and policy makers a clear understanding of the relationship between the variation of real estate prices and macroeconomic factors, and can provide a theoretical basis and help to develop future policy. Also hope that through this study of the national real estate prices and macroeconomic analysis can to guide more scholars to conduct more in-depth study on the regional real estate prices, and play a valuable role.