A Positive Research About Financial Early-Warning System Of China

The financial risk is not far from us. US's loan crisis in the 2007 year's end is just increasingly fierce, affecting each quoin of world finance, and bringing the great impact on the global economy and the finance. Since October, 2007, A market has lifted three big impact on the American loan crisis, the macroeconomic regulation and control uncertainty and the size must ban and responses excessively, and the decline range meets surpasses 50%. When the risk approaches, should we let matters drift, not take, or take the positive action and potential achievement? Certainly we should take the measure which adopts as much as possible, and reduces loss which reduces as much as possible. The author believed that, if we change one kind of thought, achieve"nips in the bud", develop"fire of the star which will possibly set the prairie afire"into the elimination of the embryonic stage, and will possibly control the increasingly fierce financial risk in certain degree, then the pasture will escape by luck to die, and the financial risk could also be under control. This proposes a topic on the financial risk early warning domain for us.This article studies the basic mentality according to logical process of the construction of finance risk early warning mechanism. Therefore, this article breakthrough point is through the summary of the domestic and foreign financial risk early warning theory, to achieve the function and the significance of the financial risk pre-warning system with the thorough understanding. In this foundation, the first is to make an overall introduction to the domestic and foreign research, understanding fully the present situation and the achievements of this domain research in order to locate this article the research direction by this. The next is the detailed elaboration of the financial risk early warning theory and the early warning target, thus determining this article's target system chosen. Then is the financial risk early warning model elaboration, thus determining this article's early warning model chosen. After the choice of early warning target and early warning model, this article has carried on real diagnosis analysis of finance risk early warning system in our country. Through the real diagnosis analysis, we obtain the basic conclusion of our country finance risk condition. This article primary intention uses the measurement economical software and carries on the VaR method analysis on the Chinese finance risk under the GARCH condition through data processing, finally completes the construction of the Chinese finance risk early warning system through the establishment of early warning information indicating lamp. The research findings in this article also mean the construction of the science financial risk early warning system indeed can reflect the actual condition of finance risk in our country, discover the form origin of the financial risk, and provide us with the method and the basis of the melting of finance risk and the effective financial risk early warning work. In the ending of paper, in view of the research conclusion and actual situation of financial market in our country, this article proposes several suggestions for guarding, melting finance risk, and promoting financial market and economy development of our country. The entire research goal is quite explicit, the method is quite scientific, and the conclusion extremely conforms to China's actual situation. Thus we can know better about the financial risk, and construct quite scientific finance risk early warning system guarding against and reducing the financial risk.Finally, through the overall view of research goal, the method, the process and the conclusion in this article, as well as the proposed policy suggestion analysis of it, the author thinks the profound theory and practical significance of the financial risk early warning research, can provide the convenience for the further deepening into the research area of the financial risk early warning , and simultaneously also plays the role of contributed labor and materials for the construction and the consummation in this domain.