A Study About Financial Early-warning System In The Financial Liberalization Of Our Country

Economic globalization and financial liberalization continues to expand, which makes the world economic ties increasingly close. The harmfulness, susceptibility and linkage of financial risk is prominent slowly. In2008, the financial crisis caused serious negative effect to the world economy and hindered Chinese economic development to a certain extent. With the deepening of financial freedom, each country’s economic ties will be more closely. At the same time, as a member of the global financial system, we need to prevent from the domestic and international financial risk which is more larger and complex. We should study and understand the causes of financial risks, the nature, type, characteristics of financial risks in the process of financial liberalization. Taking measures to control and prevent the financial risks has become a historical necessity. Therefore, how to prevent financial risks and establish a reasonable early warning system for financial risk is particularly important in the process of financial liberalization.This paper bases on the financial liberalization theory and financial risk theory as the breakthrough point. This paper describes the research of foreign scholars in the field of financial liberalization and financial risk early warning and analyzes the root of the financial risk in the process of financial liberalization in our country. Combineing with the characteristics of financial liberalization and financial risk, basing on four aspects of financial liberalization, the financial system is divided into three economic systems which is macroscopic economic system, microscopic economic system and external economic system. This paper studies the changes of risk for three economic systems in the process of financial liberalization. In empirical study, we use the factor analysis method to select some indexs, which represent Chinese financial liberalization development and construct the financial risk early warning index system. This paper tests reality and rationality of the early warning index system and finds that financial risk early warning index system could show up the trend of financial risk better in last few years about our country in the process of financial liberalization. Our financial system can better withstand the international financial risks, but we cannot overlook the financial risk which has existed. Therefore, in the process of financial liberalization, we should be modest financial liberalization for other countries and should strengthen supervision for the domestic financial institution in the financial open. In order to strengthen our financial risk management and resist the impact of international financial capital, we should establish a relatively perfect financial risk early warning index system, which has a realistic and guiding significance for promoting Chinese financial industry healthy and stable development, preventing and resolving the financial risk early in the process of financial liberalization in China.