An Empirical Study On Real Estate Flucutation And Macro-economy

Real estate industry is an industry that needs practice and is promoted by the development of real estate theories. The phenomenon that real estate economy presents periodic changes with the varies in the level of real estate economy is called"real estate cycle".The development of the market economy calls for researches on the relation between real estate cycle and macro-economy. In micro-fields, such researches will be helpful to predict periodic changes in real estate industry, and to make right investment strategies. In macro-field, such researches will be helpful to setTheory basis for government to adjust real estate industry. After the Chongqing becomes the municipality, economy has fast development; the real estate market is active. The real estate industry rapidly presents, stable, the coordinated development tendency. It becomes gradually the important strength supporting the whole city economy development. In recent years, along with the housing system reform deepening, the housing commercialization degree enhancement, the Chongqing real estate market supply and demand relations occurred has changed very much. The price is market economy "barometer", the house price is the real estate industry development condition important signal. Real estate market price characteristic reflection real estate industry development and real estate market movement basic condition. In recent years, the Chongqing house price climbs successively, and brought for the whole city social economy development. The Chongqing house price has brought widespread and the profound influence. Is related as a result of the house price and inhabitant's vital interest, is closely linked with the macroscopic economical development, the house price rise also more and more causes the government and the social from all walks of life widespread attention.In this article, theory analysis is combined with demonstration analysis. Chapterl is an introduction to real estate industry including history, importance to national economy, and research fruits of this field. The framework of this article is also introduced in this chapter. Chapter2 does an introduction to the theories about the relation between real estate cycle and macro-economy, and does a brief demonstration analysis about the relation between real estate industry and economic cycle. Chapter 3 researches relation between real estate cycle and macro-economy and introduces macro-factors that effect the real estate cycle, pointing out that national economy is the most important factor This sector does a demonstration analysis about the relation between real estate index and interest rate, and the relation between real estate index and GDP, CPI and M2 by the method of cointegration test, in order to set analysis basis for the research on the relation between real estate market and national economy. Chapter 4 comes to the conclusion of this paper.There are four innovations in this paper .1,real estate index is used as the guiding index of the real estate cycle; 2, the demonstration analysis adopts the method of cointegration test, which is different from correlations test often used in most researches and is a great progress in research method. The paper will develop our theory research in this tield and promotes a new method for further researches.