| Real estate is an important part of macro-economy of China, which has played a significant role in the rapid economic development of our country. With the economic development, the real estate has become more important in the national economy. Simultaneously, the fluctuation of the real estate price, as an important indicator of the real estate market, has become the focus of society and the peoples’ livelihood. Fluctuations of real estate price not only directly display the current development of the real estate market, but also indirectly affect the overall development of macro-economy and the development of other related industries in the macro-economic system. Additionally, Fluctuations of real estate price has relation with social stability and national living standards.Fluctuations of real estate price is an intuitive and superficial economic phenomenon, but its generation principles, running process and the effects is very complex. The characteristics, influencing factors, mechanisms of the fluctuations of real estate price, was studied, firstly. Further more, the analyzed model of the fluctuations of real estate price was established, which was used to analyse the influence of the fluctuations on the national macro-economy.On the reviewing of the domestic and foreign basis research, the characteristics of the real estate price fluctuations are theoretically summarized, influencing factors of real estate price and real estate price fluctuations are distinguished, and influencing factors are comprehensively analyzed. The main purpose is to explore the generation principles of the real estate price fluctuations, and on this basis, the fluctuation mechanisms are summed up with influencing factors working together in the process of price fluctuations. What’s more, it can provide a theoretical basis for further study.Fluctuations of real estate price in China have characteristics of trend fluctuations, cycle fluctuations, regional fluctuations and transfer fluctuations. Combined with the actual situation of China’s real estate prices, the characteristics of real estate price are empirically analyzed. On the basis of theoretical study, the form of real estate price fluctuations has been studied by using Markov Switching Model, which converts the real estate price fluctuations to continuous conversion process to fit the cycle fluctuations of real estate prices. For regional characteristics, the state-space model and the dynamic factor model are used in this paper, to estimate the regional factor and the city factor in different areas and to analyze the influence of different factors on the real estate price fluctuations. Then error correction model is formed to analyze the correlation between regional factors of real estate prices, in which the transmission of real estate price fluctuations is empirically proved among different areas.The fluctuation process of real estate price is closely associated with fluctuation mechanisms which are performed by its influencing factors, so the fluctuation mechanisms are studied in this paper from multiple view points of the fluctuation trend, the micro-level and macro-level. First, using real estate price fluctuation model is to study the fluctuation mechanism of real estate price through various factors at different time, different areas, and to find the key influencing factors of price fluctuations on the real estate market. Second, the game model is comprehensively used in this paper to simulate the economic realities of the real estate market, to construct the price game model between businesses and consumers, and to explore game mechanisms of price fluctuations on China’s real estate market. Finally, the Structural-VAR-MVGARCH-BEKK Model is used to investigate the linkage mechanism between real estate prices fluctuations and macro-economy at the mean level and fluctuation level.Finally, the impact of price fluctuations is analyzed on the macro-economy, the real estate itself and other related industries. Based on general equilibrium theory, computable general equilibrium model is constructed to quantitatively simulate the impact of real estate price fluctuations on the output of the real estate industry itself and other related industries, and to analyze influence on macroeconomic indicators of GDP, import and export, investment, etc., as well as on the actual income of different income grade resident accounts, business accounts and government accounts, which can be used to provide theoretics basis on the development of the national real estate market.
|
PDF Full Text Request