Airport Passenger Throughput Prediction Methods

These years, the improvements of the level of urbanization and transport network have promoted the formation of regional airports systems. The emergence of these airport groups brought new problems to the airport passenger throughput prediction. This paper analyzed the characteristics of the common methods for predicting the airport passenger throughput and the influence factors of the airport passenger throughput. Based on these analysis results, in accordance with the formation characteristics of passenger throughput of the airport in the airport groups, this paper used the Nested-Logit model which is often used in forecasting the city traffic choose activities in forecasting the airport passenger throughput. And this method considers the competition factor between the airport and nearly airports.First this text used the regression method to forecast the region passenger total demand. Then it used the Nested-Logit model to establish the airport choice Nested-Logit model. Used the utility function which is obtained by this model, the text redistributed the total demand and obtained the passenger throughput of the specific airport. This forecast method not only has considered the influence of the social and economic condition in the airport radiation areas, but also has considered the competition and promotion factors between the region airports. On the basis of theoretical study, this article forecasted the Su Nan (Shuo Fang) Airport passenger throughput with actual condition of this airport, and gave some personal opinion about the development of the Su Nan (Shuo Fang) Airport at last.