Research On Passenger Cars' Market Demand Forecasting Models

Since the reform and opening-up, China's market economy construction was outstanding, people's living standards improved significantly. With the great improve of people's living conditions, the demand is various, especially for "car needs"-- This modern transportation is convenient, not only to meet work and live in need, but also caters to people's motivation such as seeking the name of beauty, novelty, and comparisons. With the further development of the reform and opening-up, the demand will greatly influence the development of China's automotive industry.When the world over to accept the test of the financial crisis, the Chinese automotive industry first to rise ahead, the production of passenger cars reached 10 million level in 2009. China's passenger cars went into the popularity and more and more cars went into the millions of households, the next decade will be the fast development times of China's passenger cars market.In view of this, the scholars do a lot of research in the cars'market demand forecasting. Being relevant to passenger cars market demand research about quantitative or qualitative, most were common in from the clustering analysis, Logistic curve model, gray theory, the system dynamics theory, combined forecasting theory etc. Due to the characteristics of itself, the prediction results can only do relatively accurate, along with the change of the internal and external environments, some original forecasting results also become relatively inaccurate, which need to considerate the change comprehensively of the internal and external environment factors, and the original method for forecasting need to improve, or use the new forecasting methods.The regional development of China's passenger cars'market is not balanced. Regional Economic Development Theory said that the development process of regional economic takes on different stages. Although China's car market continue leading global sales, car sales retaining its position as the world's first, but the China's situation determines its regional development imbalance. According to the statistics, by 2005,16 percent of the passenger cars sales concentrated in Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou, a regional economic center and super-developed Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta region accounted for 19 percent, middle income's capitals and more developed prefecture-level cities accounted for 18 percent, the eastern regions accounted for 64 percent. Within the industry, based on the various regional economic development level, selected three indicators--the city population, per capita GDP and passenger demand level of districts, according to the geographical distribution (the eastern, the central, the west and the north-east), divided the National 287-level cities into five regional classification. However, in the specific dividing line, due to the number of cities increased, according to the economic development level and local passenger vehicle license plate volume, the author adjusted the classification standard, divided the National 348 places above the county level into six regional classification, such zoning become more detailed, which is in favor of grasping market well, and making a regional demand forecasting.With the development of economy in China, the influence factors of the car market development also changes. In this paper, the author uses PEST analysis to analyze the macro environment of China passenger cars'market. In order to cope with the global financial crisis, in 2009, the government promulgated most of policy measures to develop the cars'market, and with the rapid growth of GDP, per capita disposable income increased relatively, purchasing power enhanced, the needs of potential auto consumer groups were strong, the M&A of automobile industry, technical innovation also reduced the purchasing cost and using cost.In addition, along with the continuous development of regional economy and regional market has a huge potential for development. According to the theory of regional economic passage, within a certain range, the economic and technological development level is not balanced, there will exist a certain degree of economic and technological gradient difference, and will form the space passage of productivity. China's economic geographically objectively exists three gradient differences in the holdings for thousands of people, we can make demand forecasting next some years. Therefore, the author constructs an intelligent functions system module of passenger cars'market demand forecasting.Finally, combined with the actual data of China's passenger cars'market by 2010, demand of relativity passenger cars'market is forecasted., and puts forward some strategies:1. Make full use of government policies, and achieve flourish of production and sale; 2. Increase the technical innovation, and improve product value added; 3. Shape automobile consumption culture, and guide consumer restored consumer confidence gradually; 4. Construct market research team, and increase the market research investment, and improve the market forecast.