The Empirical Study Of Price Discovery Function On China's Wheat Futures Market

The development history of international futures market has proven that the futures market played a positive role in transferring price risk of agricultural products,providing authoritative guidance of the price, promoting the circulation of agricultural products, and so on. As a part of the virtual economy, the futures market reflects the role of serving for the real economy, and promoting the development of entity economy.China is a large agricultural country with population of 1.3 billion, a lot of agricultural products both the volume of output and the quantity of the import and export all accounted for a pivotal position in the international market, sufficiently influencing the price changes of international market. But the superiority has not be paid enough attention, so that many prices of superior agriculture products are dominated by other influential future exchange, such as the wheat and soybeans of CBOT and the cotton of New York futures exchange, which lead to our country in a passive position in international trade, even losses. Besides the service of avoiding risk and finding prices for China's agricultural development, it is also helpful to get the pricing power of agricultural products in the international market, formatting "missile defense system" of China's agriculture to avoid or mitigate the impact on China's agriculture of the international market and enhance China's agricultural international competition strength.As one of domestic four futures exchanges, Zhengzhou commodity exchange accumulated deal contract 92.5962 million in 2006 whole year, the deal amount 318.0964 billion Yuan, the growth rate are 62.61% and 46.96% respectively. Wheat is the first batch of prompt sale variety of Zhengzhou commodity exchange. Wheat futures have become increasingly active in recent years, and wheat futures have relatively longer history in Chinese futures market. Speaking of Chinese futures market, the wheat futures market has a certain representation. The ultimate aim of researching wheat futures markets is to enable it better serves for our country agricultural development and even the entire national economy.The reason for electing wheat futures as the research object, and as a starting point is mainly based on the following aspects to consider: First, the wheat is one of principal varieties in international agricultural product futures market, and the transaction is active, therefore, it has representation in the international agricultural product futures market. Second, wheat is the top priority in China's grain system. It is not only as flour processing of raw materials, used for food consumption. Wheat is also main raw material of wine, fodder, medicine, spices and so on. Wheat is the economical subjects of affecting many links.Third, China's wheat futures market is the subject of the futures market which is the earliest start and develops fully. Naturally, it has its representation. The research to its present situation and function has great practical significance to the preliminary analysis about the present situation of China's agricultural futures market Fourth, so far, the study on China's wheat futures functions is very few, and so this paper attempts to have a try.