Research On Bullwhip Modeling And Reduction Method By Information Sharing

With the globalization of world economy and enterprise competition, each company has a more and more clear insight that she functions as nothing other than a member of one or several supply chains and that her survival and development depend on the supply chain. So the research in supply chain naturally becomes the focus of both academy and business.The Bullwhip refers to the phenomena of demand magnify or equation magnify, which comes from the information distortion and amplification through its transfer in each level and the consequent demand amplification. And the research on Bullwhip concentrates on the fellows issues as the demonstration of Bullwhip, modeling of Bullwhip and reduction method of Bullwhip.One the basis of existing research other at home and abroad, this dissertation make a new Bullwhip model and design a Bullwhip reduction method through information sharing.First, the dissertation concludes the inborn trait of supply chain, find the cause of Bullwhip and sum the Bullwhip's damageSecond, comparing the Moving-averages, Exponential Smoothing and Minimum-mean-square-error forecasting method, this dissertation gives the verification of Bullwhip using the Moving-averages forecasting method and ARMA (1, 1) demand model.Third, the dissertation give the system dynamic model of supply chain made up by a manufacturing and a retailer, and discuss the influence of parameter K and R to the model.Fourth, the dissertation also includes classification of information in supply chain , gives there different information sharing model and compares the Bullwhip in three models.Fifth, the dissertation gives a quantitative analysis of VMI's influence to Bullwhip and at the some time bring forward the limitation of VMI innovatively.