Study On Interactive Relationship Between Land Prices And Housing Prices In Changchun

Since l998, with the housing system reform, the rapid economic development and the people's increaseing income of China, the housing prices continue rise rapidly. China's housing prices keep rising rapidly in recent years, which have remained high in the past 5 years.Until today, there are still some areas of housing prices increase with the speed of several times higher than that of economic growth, and the average individual income than housing prices are almost 30 times.As 2007 for example, the 70 large and medium-sized urban land transaction prices increased in the first three quarters rose by 12.8%, and increasing season by season the former three quarters cumulative average home sales price rose 6.7%.The relationship between the land and house prices became the debate of the government departments, developers, academic. High land prices and housing prices will hinder economic,social development and the improvement of living standards. Developer blamed rising land prices, local scholars suggested that the Government land as the sole supplier of the pursuit of"Profit maximization"further push up prices, the Government vigorously for the protection of people's livelihood control housing prices have little effect. Therefore, the relationship between the land and house prices becames the focus of debate in China's government departments, developers, real estate developers and the academic. Along with the land transfer system for the deepening of reform, land prices started to rise. Urban land prices and property prices is the main system, the relationship between the coordinated operation of the real estate industry, efficiency of urban land use has a significant impact. Whether the relationship between them is coordinate or not that has a significant impact on the running of China's real estate and the urban land use efficiency.Reasonable land prices and housing prices are important conditions to the healthy development of real estate. High housing prices and land prices will hinder the social and economic development and the improvement of people's living standard, while low land prices will not only result in the loss of state-owned assets, but also cause the waste of land resources. So it is significant that dealing with the relationship between the land prices and the housing prices can promote the coordination of the development of real estate and socio-economic. It will not only help us improve the theoretical knowledge, but help us accomplish the people living and working in peace and create a harmonious society.The reason that selecting Changchun city as the study object of the relationship between the land prices and the housing prices is the size of the foreign resident population show significant trends in the expansion with the continuous improvement of socio-economic and the level of modernization. Population growth, urbanization process is accelerating in Changchun will be a lot of demand for housing, urban residents and per capita disposable income was the overall growth trend, domestic market demand has been increasing. The city of Changchun in northern china is becoming the new hot real estate development area and the real estate market of Changchun city has entered a new historical stage of development.On the basis of the relevant theory, this theory qualitative discussed on the relationship between the land price and the house price in specific aspects of the four premium:First, starting with the meaning and the components of urban land prices and housing prices, the paper analyzes the relationship between land prices and housing prices and discusses the changes of both on different conditions, then shows the relationship of both from the qualitative point. Second, according to the trend of land prices and house prices in Changchun during the past few years, the paper analyzes the relationship of both from the perspective of supply and demand factors. Third, based on the real estate market analysis, the paper uses specific cases. Through the sub-samples of Changchun city, the paper studies the region and time's impact on the relationship of both. In the end, the paper uses the Granger causality to explore the causal relationship between land prices and housing prices form the perspective of time series of changes of both. Through theoretical, macro, case analysis and measurement concludes: in short run, housing price determines land price while ;in long run, both interact with each other. Compared with the selling means by reaching an agreement through consultations, the land bidding and auction selling policy helps to lower land price s influence on housing price by way of improving the competition in land and real estate market. Land prices are not the main reason for housing prices, in some words, land prices rising is the result of the housing prices rising. Because the average profit margin of real estate developers is much higher than the general of profit margin of society, so that the necessity that the rising cost of house leading to the rising housing price is not exist. Although the rising land prices cause the housing prices to increase, the role is very limited. The contradiction between supply and demand in real estate market lies on demand rather than supply. More and more speculative investment demand and a half and the gradual strengthening expect that the price is rising, causes the housing prices rising.At present, the government should continue to stabilize the macro-control polices of real estate, further doing land management, strengthening the deep reform such as the competitiveness of real estate market, the opening of land transaction, transparent, timely development of land and stock market, and strengthen macro-controlling the structure of supply and demand of land market and building the affordable housing, low-cost housing construction system. The decision-making and implementation of government can't be interfered with all kinds of rent-seeking behavior of existing interest groups, only in this way to ensure the long-term, healthy development of China's real estate market. So the paper concludes some policy measures, such as making the reasonable schemes of land supply for the long-term development trend of real estate market, adjusting to the existing structure of housing supply, increase the supply proportion of medium and small residential units and determining reasonable scale of low-cost house and affordable house.