The Study On Risk Evaluation On Technological Innovation Project Of Chinese Small & Medium-sized Enterprises

With the rapid development of the economy now,intense competition in the market is growing day after day,which the science and technology play important role mainly through the implementation of technical innovation.Successful technological innovation,through technology diffusion,Often normally causes changes of the industrial structure,market structure and the structure of foreign trade of one country.It also lays the foundation for a higher level technological innovation,which can create a virtuous cycle to promote a country's economy growing.In the United States,40%of productivity increase of 1928-1978 was achieved by technological innovation.As technological innovation has "spillover effects",the success of technological innovation is bound to bring the huge economic benefits to the whole community.In recent years,with the rapid development,Chinese Small & Medium-sized Enterprises has become one of the important pillars of the national economy.Because of their specificity of themselves and external environment,SMEs have strong driving forces for technological innovation,and have carried out a great deal of technological innovation activities,which have become an important part of national innovation system.A statistic of Mansfield in 1981 show that high-tech enterprises has less than 60%of R & D programs succeeding in technology,less than 30%of programs succeeding in technology can be pushed to the market,and only 20%of products pushed to the market can finally succeed.In other words,during the period of beginning to the market success,the proportion of R & D programs is less than 2.2%.Therefore, how to identify and evaluate the risk of technological innovation effectively is essential to the smooth implementation of technological innovation of SMEs.Based on the in-depth analysis of the current situation at home and abroad,this paper put up a systematic analysis of Chinese SMEs and their technical innovation activities,and further elaborated problems exist in technical innovation activities of Chinese SMEs.Based on the risk sources and characteristics of technological innovation for SMEs,then it developed systematical identification for risk factors in the process of technological innovation of SMEs,and built risk evaluation index system of technical innovation project of Chinese SMEs,which was tested by reliability and validity analysis.Based on the general comparison of various risk evaluation models, the paper selected fuzzy neural network as the risk assessment model for technological innovation projects of SMEs.Finally it selected a SME for empirical study in order to test the characteristics of scientific and valid of evaluation index system and model,and built a risk early warning and control system for technological innovation of SMEs,in order to provide the scientific basis for decision-making for technological innovation of SMEs.