A Study Of System Dynamic Simulation On Beijing Modern Manufacturing Under Resources Constraint

Although manufacturing is the key industry to support sustainable economic development of a region, it is also the primary factor in rapid consumption of world's natural resources, energy resources. With the rapid industrialization process of China, various resources are also being used at unprecedented speed and scale. At the same time, the growth way of China's economic has not been changed effectively, which makes resources being wasted and under low efficient used. The resources become increasingly shortage. Therefore, the development of high value-added, less resource consumption and environmental friendly modern manufacturing has become the only way for sustainable economic development.Currently, Beijing is relatively in low volume of natural resources. The increasingly shortage resources of water, land, crude oil, coal, eclectric power make the development of Beijing modern manufacturing faced with a lot of constraints. In that case, this paper will take study on how resources shortage impact on Beijing modern manufacturing, how much developing scale of Beijing modern manufacturing can resources carry at existing technology level, what ways can be used to improve the carrying capacity of resources, and what kinds of developing strategies and countermeasures can be used to deal with these problems.Therefore, this paper first introduced the relative theories about sustainable development and cycle economic, and concluded the research progress of sustainable development and industrial sustainable development. Then after fully analyzing Beijing's overview conditions of resources, population, economic and modern manufacturing, this paper developed the evaluation index system of sustainable developing abilities for Beijing modern manufacturing, and proposed by applying system dynamics method to the study to simulate the developing conditions of Beijing modern manufacturing in the next ten years. Finally, after the analysis of basic behavior simulation and scenario simulation, this paper put forward countermeasures and proposals for the sustainable development of Beijing modern manufacturing.