| The commercial real estate's development condition is an urban economy development miniature.The price as the market barometer,has reflected the market change directly.The commercial real estate price is the commercial real estate market movement core mechanism,is the commercial real estate market most sensitive variable.Its change not only has the close relation with the commercial real estate market's healthy development,moreover also and general consumer's vital interest direct correlation.Along with the Xi'an tertiary industry's swift development,the commercial real estate price rises year by year.Since 08 years,the government has increased the expanded domestic demand unceasingly policy dynamics,this topic's research appears more important.This article has mainly conducted the following three aspect research:First in the deep research domestic and foreign real estate price fixed price model and in the commercial real estate price influencing factor theory's foundation,unifies the existing real estate price theory system,has analyzed the Xi'an commercial real estate development process and the present situation, from the Xi'an commercial real estate market all quarters participant's angle,analyzed one by one theoretically has affected the Xi'an commercial real estate price each influencing factor.Then in statistics theory's foundation,the introduction principal components analytic method and the combination prediction theory,has carried on the analysis to the Xi'an commercial real estate change of price influencing factor.Then draws the conclusion:The Xi'an commercial real estate change of price's influencing factor is in turn commercial business completes the investment cost,the social fixed assets investment,the urbanized level,the resident consumption price index,the township dwellers according to influence size sorting with the room to be possible to control the income,the average per person family consumption gross charge,the vacant area,the Engel's coefficient,the population density.Finally has conducted the Xi'an commercial real estate change of price tendency forecast research. This research has utilized the gray GM(1,1) model,the fil Hass model and two plans in the Xi'an commercial real estate change of price forecast utilization,not only has carried on the forecast through the empirical analysis to the Xi'an commercial real estate price's change tendency,and has given the multianalysis to two kind of model's in utilization good and bad points and the forecast precision,Finally uses two plans the model unifies GM(1,1) model and fil Hass,both has made up these two kind of model flaw,and enhanced the forecast scientific nature.This article has certain reference significance to the Xi'an commercial real estate market's superintendent and the commercial real estate's investor and has certain use value. |
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