Research On The Factors Effecting Commercial Housing Market Prices And Predict The Price In Shanghai

China is on the stage of developing and improving, including the real estate market. In 1998, the government started the implementation of housing policy to start the development of the national real estate industry which made China's real estate industry show a steady growth momentum of development. However, the reality that China's housing prices were too much higher, to some extent have led to the current investment in the real estate market tends to overheating, the waste and low efficiency associated with the use of resources since 2003.After 2004, China's real estate prices continued to rise, the real estate prices are staggering increase in Yangtze River region of which Shanghai is the center, house prices in Yangtze River are now the highest in the country, Shanghai is the leading of the Yangtze River, Shanghai real estate's sharp rise in prices have been given much concern. It is important that how to explain the price changes, and reasonably estate Shanghai's real estate prices in future.The paper is divided into six chapters. The first chapter, analysis the background of market price of the Shanghai real estate market ,the meaning and the methods, The second chapter, analysis the theory and status of commercial housing in Shanghai , The third chapter, analysis some factors effecting commercial housing price in Shanghai from the theory and make use of SPSS to analysis software commercial housing price in Shanghai and results that are as follows: construction of commercial housing area> residential investment goods> GDP> workers the average wage, per capita disposable income of> the end of household population> per capita living space of> interest rates, interest rate is the negative impact factor, Chapter IV, analysis Shanghai residential market supply and demand factors through web model, as a result, the transmission prices system is not stable and show the positive feedback characteristics of the divergence, predict Shanghai commercial housing market in 2009 and 2010, the total demand is 38,335,920 square meters and 39,000,150 square meters through regression model, the fifth chapter, predict Shanghai real estate price in 2010 and 2011 is 16,991, respectively, 19,731,Chapter VI, accordance to the actual situation of residential real estate market in Shanghai, and make some recommendations.