| Based on the theory of financial crisis, the thesis chooses the financial crisis in Southeast Asia in 1997 and in Vietnam in 2008 as the main object. These two are the outbreak of the financial crisis in Asian countries, and the crisis in Vietnam and Thailand which is the country that the Southeast Asian financial crisis first erupted has many similarities. This thesis attempts to comparative analysis these two financial crises in the reasons and the results. This thesis is also aim to explore its occurrence, the reason for the mechanism and provide reference and information for the research in financial crisis in emerging markets.In analysis the cause of the financial crisis, this thesis focused on the economic growth model, financial liberalization, the inflow of foreign capital and asset bubbles. The root cause of the crisis is the economic growth mode. At the early stage, this model created an economic miracle, attracted a large number of capital flows, domestic financial are passively opened. Financial liberalization leads to the financial vulnerability and after financial liberalization, a large number of foreign icapital inflows. Because the externality of investment, foreign capital inflow over the tendency. On the one hand, excessive inflow of foreign capital flows to non-productive enterprises, thus pushing up the asset prices, causing asset bubbles, on the other hand, lead to increase external debt. Then use a Model to prove the external debt is not coordinate with the economic growth and current account balance, which could trigger a crisis. And then use early warning model to analysis the 1997 financial crisis in Southeast Asia and Vietnam in 2008, the results show that the central fiscal expenditure and the current account balance has a significant role to the crisis. Finally, use the multiple equilibrium models to explain the different contagion between these two crises. This model proved that the fundamental reason for contagion is a country's economic fundamentals. |
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