Research On The Micro-principle And Simulation Of Technological Innovation Diffusion

This paper is mainly focused on the microscopic principle of the technological innovation diffusion. The purpose is to establish a diffusion simulation model which is based on the microscopic principle of diffusion, by means of thorough understanding the micro-mechanism of innovation diffusion, so as to provide a new and practical tool for conducting further research to help forecasting, controlling and optimizing the diffusion process,Using the relevant theoretical research achievements for reference, combining macro-analysis and micro-simulation methods, the principle, the driving force, the adoption behavior of the innovation diffusion and the simulation analysis of cellular automata are researched in the dissertation, which provides a new research approach for the theory of the technological innovation diffusion.Analyze the principle and the driving force of the technological innovation diffusion from a macro perspective. Why the decision-making enterprises using the technological innovation, so that the technological innovation can be spread or diffusion, whether the adoption time of enterprises are determined at the same time, or"open the adoption space"between enterprises, and that is the first problem needs to solve in the research of innovation diffusion theory. Focus mainly on the spatial pattern, spatial processes and spatial behavior during technological innovation diffusion process. It's the interaction of "Spatial behavior-Spatial process-Spatial pattern" that form the chain principle of the diffusion system's evolution, to understand the evolution of diffusion system must deeply study of the chain cycle theory.Analyze the enterprises adoption behavior of the technological innovation diffusion from a micro perspective. Technological innovation diffusion performed as"diffusion in the micro level, aggregation in the macro level". Micro level is the basis of macro level, and the macro level is the collective behavior of the micro level. Macro technological innovation diffusion process is the nonlinear mapping of the micro technological innovation adoption process and the interaction between them. Microscopic analysis is focused on the adoption behavior, while the macroscopic analysis is on the impact factors which influence the Spatial-Temporal expansion mode directly. The adoption behavior is the most important and most crucial process in the diffusion process; it's the prerequisite as well as the micro-foundation of technological innovation diffusion. The Spatial-Temporal expansion mode is just the aggregation effect of the potential adopters'adoption behavior.Cellular automata are used to bridge the gap between the micro level and the macro level. Based on the Spatial-Temporal expansion mode of the innovation diffusion, a stochastic cellular automata model is proposed. In empirical study of the Internet diffusion, the diffusion process and the main impact factors are analyzed, some conclusions are made, and a prototype simulation system is developed.