The Study Of The Long-term Load Forecasting Of Beijing On The General Construction Of Well-off Society

Electric power industries play an important role in the construction of well-off society. Nevertheless,the structure of economy and society changes greatly,which inevitably leads to incessant change and interact of all the factors that affect the demand of electric power.Middle and long-term electric power demand forecasting differs from short-term forecasting in that it is affected by the uncertain factors more obviously.Beijing as the capital,whose construction of well-off society develops rapidly,so the middle and long-term electric power demand forecasting are affected by the market reform factors more obviously.Taking Beijing as an example,this paper analyzes the electricity consumption and demand trends of it,then forecasts the electricity power demand in 2020 with traditional middle and long-term power demand forecasting method.At the same time,the multi-regression model is built to forecast the electric power demand in 2020 on the basis of proving the causality between the electricity consumptions and the market reform factors, then the results are compared with that of traditional methods.At last,the forecasting results of the multi-regression model are optimized using the equivalent dimensions additional gray-regression combination model,the optimized results is the final forecasting results in 2020 of Beijing.