Research On Securities Analyst's Earning Forecast In View Of Banking

As overall strength of the banking enhances gradually,the domestic banking's going on the market plates are increased unceasingly.More and more securities analysts who have the enormous guidance function to the investor pay attention to and predict the banking.So it is important to analyse the earning forecasting ability of securities analysts to the banking.Through reviewing the literatures of the earning forecasting ability of securities analysts,we can find that the researches are consummating unceasingly.But the research about some special industry is very few.Although some researchers have mentioned the existence difference of the securities analyst's earning forecast in the research during the different profession,they have not done the special research in view of this situation.Therefore the research of securities analyst's earning forecast of the specific profession is still compared to defective.So,this article analyse the securities analyst's earning forecast situation in view of banking.This paper consists five parts:Part one introduces the research background,the objective and meaning of the research.Part two reviews domestic and foreign gains the forecast research results about the securities analyst.At last we carry on the simple narration to the domestic and foreign literature in order to have a better understanding to the next part of research.Part three mainly introduces the correlation theory foundation,including the effective market hypothesis,the information asymmetrical theory and the earning forecast's related content,and introduces our country securities analyst's development process.Part four is an empirical analysis of securities analyst's earning forecast in view of banking.First we analyse the relation of the actual earning value and the forecast earning value as well as the correlative prediction error,taking 14 public banks as the object of this study,using the correlative data from 2006 to 2008.And we indicate that our country banking securities analyst's earning forecast has the quite high reliability whose forecast information is useful for the investors.Then we select the analyst nummber,the earning predictability,the earning fluctuation,the speed of the bank growth and the bank scale and analyse the influence of these factors to securities analyst's forecast precision.Then we discover that the analyst number and the earning undulatory property has the reverse correlational dependence on the securities analyst's forecast precision,and gained that the predictability,the bank growth speed and the bank scale has the forward correlational dependence on the securities analyst's forecast precision.Part five is the conclusion.Based on above research,this paper draws the conclusion and proposes some insufficiencies of the article in order to improve it in the future.The main innovation lies in:(1) The topic is innovative.Based on previous research,this paper analyses the profit predictive ability of securities analysts in view of the banking.(2) Data is of special significance.In China,the economy experienced the rapid development of 2006,2007.During 2008,the economy has slowed down its pace of development because of the financial crisis.So the relevant data of the three years from 2006 to 2008 for the study is more representative.(3) Through this paper,the study found that the profit predictive ability of securities analysts in the banking has a high accuracy.We analyse the influencing factors of securities analyst's forecast precision and discover that the organization number and the profit undulatory property has the reverse correlational dependence on the securities analyst's forecast precision,and gained the predictability,the bank growth speed and the bank scale has the forward correlational dependence on the securities analyst's forecast precision.