The Study On The Terms Of Trade Of High-tech Manufacture In China

With the deepening of economic globalization, the rapid development of science and technology, the scientific and technological progress and technology-intensive industries contribute more and more to the development of regional economy and the improvement of international competitiveness. The import and export of technology- intensive goods has been an important part of trade and becomes an important indication to measure the level of technology development and the ability of obtaining long-term interests. Terms of trade reflects the exchange ratio, indicating the segmentation under the international specialization. So,this article makes research on the terms of trade of high-tech industry.Firstly, this article defines the terms of trade. Terms of trade has three kinds of forms: price terms of trade, income terms of trade and factor terms of trade. They measure country's trade interest from different angles of gains from trade. The main factors that affect trading conditions are economic growth, exchange rate, and foreign direct investment.Secondly, this article makes empirical analysis of three major terms of trade, and obtains the change trend of terms of trade in 1998-2007. For example, since 1998, there are two turning point in the trend of terms of trade of technology-intensive goods and the change occurs in 2001 and 2004. Since 1998, income terms of trade has been ascending although the speed slowed down in 2004. Since 1998, single factor terms of trade has been continuously improved. The trend of china's double terms of trade with important trade partners is similar to price terms of trade.Then, this article makes empirical analysis on the main influencing factors of terms of trade, based on the change trend of terms of trade. Aiming at the influence effect of trade terms, this article makes Granger causality test and correlation analysis. In 2005-2007, the improvement of high-tech goods' terms of trade can be explained by the technology progress. After July 21, 2005, the rise of RMB exchange rate lead to the rise of export good's price, so it is one of the reason for improvement of price terms of trade in 2005-2007. In addition, FDI has greatly raised the amount of export goods, thus become one of the reasons for the improvement of income terms of trade. Lastly, Based on our country's terms of trade, this article puts forward some relevant policy suggestions.