The Early-warning Research And System Design Of Real Estate Market

The real estate industry is the pillar industry of national economy of our country,whose market operation has the characteristics of periodicity and fluctuation.The "overheat" and "overcool" of its market operation will have great negative influence on the development of national economy.In recent years,the "overheat" phenomenon appears in part regions of real estate market of our country,which may cause great impact on the region and even the country.Therefore,it is particularly important to establish scientific and effective real estate market early warning system.This paper seeks the tendency of real estate market early warning research at present starting from the present situation analysis of real estate research of home and abroad with the aid of the collaborative application of computer technology multiple methods.Therefore,this paper puts forwards the thought on real estate market early warning system design on the basis of describing the real estate market characteristics,and analyzing the operation rule and market early warning method research of real estate market.Firstly,this paper analyses the main factors which affect the real estate market,and establish the prediction index system of the real estate market under the guidance of the thought.The highly precise ones will be carried out with the index prediction with the aid of computer software,through the comparative research on the artificial neural network BP (Error Back Propagation Network) algorithm and RBF(Radial Basis Function) algorithm used.Secondly,three relative quantity indexes selected will be acted as the warning situation index of the real estate market through the research on the real estate market.The expert evaluation method and the warning situation index method will be combined to determine the historical warning situation of the real estate market and offer the training standard for the studying of artificial neural network.Thirdly,the artificial neural network integration theory will be used to determine the warning situation of the real estate market of the next year.Last,this paper will combine the above research content into the application and practice of real estate market in Xi'an to determine whether the operation status of the real estate market in Xi'an in 2008 is within the normal scope.