| Major countries change their political focus from the stagnated Doha Round negotiations to FTA development in recent years. FTAs are developing dramatically in today's world, as fewer countries involved and operation is more flexible. FTA is considered as a supplement to the framework of WTO because of its positive effects. In order to meet the new worldwide requirements, China also keeps developing the FTAs. The FTA strategy was mentioned in the report of the seventeenth conference of Chinese Communist Party.If the benefits and losses of the FTA establishments among different countries can be calculated in advance, they will be strong evidences for choosing the potential partners to establish FTAs. In order to achieve the objective, the research framework is as follows:The status quo of economics and trade cooperation in East Asia and the role of China in the cooperation were reviewed in Chapter 1, where the method, framework and innovation points of this thesis were also described.Chapter 2 reviewed the core theories and empirical models of the research on FTAs and summarized up viewpoints of the articles for reference.Chapter 3 introduced the CGE model used in this thesis, the GTAP model, including its theoretical structure, data sources and solving elements, so as to support the analysis in following chapters.The six FTAs---CAFTA, Three "10+1" FTAs coexistence, "10+3" FTA, "10+6" FTA, "10+3" FTA and "10+6" FTA under the conditions of Doha Round---were simulated in Chapter 4. Firstly, new baseline and conditions for the six FTAs were designed. Secondly, the detailed analysis of each FTA was conducted, including GDP, welfare and import & export value which the simulation could affect. Thirdly, there was a comparative analysis of the six FTAs, focus on the effects on China.The last chapter of the thesis concluded that the "10+3" FTA was the best choice for China. And for ASEAN, Korea and Japan, it was also a beneficial choice, better than the "10+6" FTA. |
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