| In the multilateral or bilateral and regional negotiation of China with other countries, the evaluation of the sign of FTA agreement on domestic industries in China is mostly on the basis of quality analysis, short of quantification analysis. It results in the effects of the negotiation results and the implementation of the agreement on the domestic industries can not be forecast and evaluation with science. This paper used a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to evaluate the impact of China-Australia FTA agreement on our iron ore industries.Firstly, a literature review of the characteristics of China's macroeconomic situation with the World Trade Organization (WTO) accession was did, it provided the economic background and the analysis basic point for our further research.Secondly, the iron ore trade between China and Australia was analyzed through the following several aspects. Using a lot of data to calculate the Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) Index of 99 kinds of merchandises trade between China and Australia, and then the trade dependence situation and the trade characteristics of China and Australia was evaluated. The increase rate of China's steel output, the change of the f.o.b and the c.i.f of imported iron ore from 1996 to2004 year was collected, clear up and accounted. It can help us to hold the relationship of iron ore and steel of China, and to find the reasonable threshold to do the further research. For the imported iron ore of China's research, a CGE sub-model was made, this sub-model have some model-building innovations, which introduced the mechanism of multinationals dynamic model into the single static model. Based on this model and the data, we combined GEMPACK software and FORTRAN compiler to program to carry out the concretely application of the model. Using EVIEWS software to estimate and calibrate the parameters which was used in the sub-model, it made more science and more reasonable to express the actual commerce situation of China.Thirdly, due to the imported iron ore of China has no tariff, we supposed the iron ore price as the exogenous shock to analyze the effects of iron ore price on macro-economic and industries of China, especially the iron ore industry. The simulation was consist of short run simulation and long run simulation two parts. Each simulation results was analyzed through 4 aspects, include macroeconomy impacts, industry impacts, regional impacts and province or city impacts. Analyzed the effect of... |
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