The Analysis Of Influencing Factors Of Commercial Housing Price And Its Forecasting In China

The real estate industry is a pillar industry of China's national economy, it plays a very important role with the development of economy, and has become a new growth point and consumption hot spots. In recent years, it is remarkable that the housing price has risen faster and faster. The trend of this rising, not only greatly affects the quality of life, but also has been a destabilizing factor of continued stable development of the entire national economy.At first, this paper analysis the effect on commercial housing price, including the housing supply and demand. Based on statistical data and using econometric methodology and statistical analysis methods, the paper analyzes the impact on various factors mainly from the perspective of the empirical analysis. According to the results of empirical research, the paper points out that there are seven key factors which have significantly affected the China's commercial housing prices: per capita disposable income, consumer price index, domestic real estate development loans, foreign direct investment in real estate, land transactions price index , Money supply and land-supply policy. The money supply has the greatest impact on housing prices. Then, the paper uses MATLAB software to build up BP neural network model, to forecast the housing price. The result shows that compared with 2007, the average selling price of commercial housing in four quarters of 2008 is on a downward trend. Based on the empirical analysis above, at the end of the paper, it gives some advices on the China's real estate market.