A Study On The Modeling And Forecasting Of The Number Of Automobiles Owned By China And It's Empirical Analysis

The modern management depends on scientific forecasting. For the regulation and controlling of macro economic by government, and for the materially strategic decisions enterprises making, forecasting always takes key role in economic field. Decision maker needs find out the changes of thing in the future and how many change it will be, then complies and executes an reasonable and scientific plan, to realize goals.Firstly, basis on the background in China, analysis motor vehicle industry great progress and the signify means of this progress towards China economic development, environment protecting and energy source strategic.We pay our attention to analysis the history time series data of developed countries', automobile industries. Experiential data indicates when the economy and society development has reached into a certainty period, households will abundantly possess automobile, automobile popularize will be rapidly and the economy will be gradually booming. By comparing of the catch-up and surpass countries history data, we find out a regulation of different countries have similar automobile popularization curves in medium and long period, for per capit of electricity generation and crude steel production, there are similarity curves in some counties also.For the yearly forecasting of the number of automobiles owned by China, we created an exponential increasing model, a VAR model and a cointegration and error correction model to analysis, and then use China history data to demonstrate and check the forecasting precisions of above models. A cointegration and error correction model is adopted to analyze the impact of the global financial crisis in 2008 on the number of automobiles owned by China. Other than this, we demonstates a calculating example of nonlinear support vector machine method to forecasting the yearly number of automobiles owned by China.For the medium and long terms forecasting of the number of automobiles owned by China, based on above similarity phenomena we found, raise an hypothesis which is the overtake counties like China has similar automobile popularization curves with USA, Japan and South Korean. A new forecasting method base on scenario analysis is proposed to forecast the medium and long term number of automobiles owned by China. Find out the number of automobile owned by China will reach a horrendous lever which will be about 400 million in 2035, and this automobile owned number by China will be 1.5 times of the current automobile owned number byUSA.