Forecast Of Economic Growth By Time Series And Scenario Planning Method

“Scenario planning” applied to the field of economic forecasting can bring multidimensional results. Using Shenzhen(the sample city) historical data of the national accounts from 1978-2015, we analyzed the present status and established regression Model and adaptive test using Box-Jenkins combined with scenario planning method to predict Shenzhen 2016-2020 economic aggregates and economic growth rate.The result shows that ARIMA model established using B- J method when modeling analysis is made for nonstationary series time series has better predictive validity. Main conclusion is as follows: in reference, i.e. normality scene, the average speed of growth of Shenzhen economy during the "13th five-year planning" is between 7.5%?9.7%, and GDP can reach 25375 billion to 29788 billion Yuan by 2020, with trend of slowing increase rate; in pessimistic, i.e. risk scene, the average speed of growth of Shenzhen economy during the "13th five-year planning" is between 5.2%?7.5%, and GDP can reach 22330 billion to 25375 billion Yuan by 2020, with trend of slowing increase rate. In optimistic, i.e., the best situation, the average speed of growth of Shenzhen economy during the period of "13th five year planning" is between9.7%?11.8%%, and GDP can reach 29788 billion to 33362 billion Yuan, with trend of slowing increase rate.