Research On The Innovation Diffusion Behavior And Coordinating Mechanism Based On Complex Network

Diffusion of innovation products is one of the most important parts of technology diffusion. After the appearance of the innovation products, the factors affect the adoption and diffusion of products becomes a key studied problem. The diffusion models have become the main domain of market theory when the Bass was brought forward in 1969.The Bass model and its extended models are used widely in the aspects of describing and forecasting for an innovation diffusion process. But the validity of Bass model is disbelieved foe sometimes. In fact, the Bass model is valid just only for a few of products'diffusion curves, and people attempt to reduce the hypothesis of Bass model, and increase the applicability of the model, so many extended models based on Bass model, Norton model is one.Based on this model,the thesis brings forward the modified Norton model,We use delevoped perspective to research the Adoption and Substitution for Successive Generations.It's significant for the company's decision.Firstly, the thesis analyses the complexity of the market diffusion process of innovation products. Bring forward the applicability of a complex network in the market diffusion process of innovation products. It's not only the binding point between complex network and the market diffusion of innovation products, but also break points of this thesis. After that, research on the models of the market diffusion of innovation products from the point of view of the adoption and substitution for successive generations. Improve the original market diffusion process of innovation products, and get some satisfied data.As to research methods, the thesis focuses on the combination between model technology and quantitative analysis, qualitative analysis. Primarily use differential dynamical system and optimizing control theory, apply data analysis and computer simulation to achieve the aim of research.The thesis's main conclusion and contribution are as follows: (1)Research the complexity of the market diffusion process of innovation products. In the process spring up some intricate problems, based on this questions, the author summed up a more extensive and profound complexity. Employ the complex network to research the market diffusion process of innovation products is a good selection. In the thesis, the author proposes the applicability of a complex network in the market diffusion process of innovation products and gives an example to display the process racially.(2) For high-technology products, the diffusion of products always contacts with each other and its own characteristics. In this case, the research of the model for the adoption and substitution for successive generations of the models of connecting Internet in China is very important. The thesis takes the Norton model to fit the three mode of connecting Internet, but the estimating parameters of Norton model supposes that the innovation coefficient of each generation pi is equal to others, and the imitation coefficient qi. So, from the thesis, the author considers that each generation of the Norton has itself parameters, it is not truth for the hypothesis of the Norton p=pi q=qi. Soon after, the author takes the modified Norton model to fit the three mode of connecting Internet in China, and gets some satisfied results. The model regards the market potential as a function about growth rate of population and contribution rate of technological progress. This modified model can better simulate the real situation of diffusion. Verify the validity of the modified model and reflects the research value of this thesis.