Theoretical Analysis And The Empirical Research On Financial Crisis Prediction Of The Real Estate Listed Companies In China

The emergence of financial crisis has a great impact on the capital-intensive domestic real estate industry; many of them have an increase in fund shortage and the possibility of financial crisis. Naturally, how to monitor the financial crisis of the real estate industry has became into a global issue of common concern in the whole society.From the basic characteristics of the real estate industry and its development process, the thesis Qualitatively analysis formation mechanism, identification methods of the financial crisis in the china real estate business on the basis of summarizing the research results in domestically and foreign. By comparing the advantages and disadvantages of various models, The thesis Choose a practical application at a wide range of Z model, And make use of Altaian's Z model in the real estate listed companies in the financial early warning effectiveness and practicality of an empirical analysis. The results show that the Critical value of the Z model does not fit the real estate listed companies whose financial early warning. According to the actual situation of our country real estate, On the one hand, starting from the modified threshold, the thesis put forward a suitable real estate company's financial crisis in our country discriminant value; On the other hand , the thesis modeled on Z model and Choose fisher discriminant model and set up specifically to fit the industry model of a financial crisis early warning. The thesis draws three conclusions through the analysis. First, Z model can not be applied to the financial crisis prediction of the real estate listed companies in china; the critical value must be modified. Second, obtains the new critical value of Z model suitable to our country's real estate listed companies; through the back substitution test and the data test of 2008 proves that the new critical value predication has a better accuracy. Third, establishing Fisher discriminant model based on the modifying of indexes, the data test of 2008 conclusions that the overall classification accuracy is 89.24%, which proves that the model's discriminant ability is preferably.Two methods could better predict the occurrence of financial crisis, Looking forward to having good effects on the financial early warning of the China's real estate listed companies.