The Research Of Early-warning Financial Crisis Model Applied In Real Estate Listed Company

The estate sub-prime loans led to the2008financial crisis in the United States. In the post-financial crisis era, it is necessary to look at China’s estate market crisis. As a main industry of China’s national economic, the estate industry accounted for a large proportion of GDP. The estate industry chain is very long, they related to the development of the national economy as a whole. Listed estate companies as representatives of the real estate industry, the development of their situation on behalf of the overall level of the estate industry. Due to the changing economic situation at home and abroad in recent years, coupled with the country’s determi-nation to control the estate market risk and policy risk making estate listed compa-nies facing more risk. China’s estate industry is highly dependent on bank loans,lead the industry in big financial risk. However, China’s estate listed compa-nies is in a early stage of using the financial crisis early warning system.It’s important for the listed estate companies to establish financial crisis early warning system. The establishment of estate listed companies in financial crisis early warning model to help companies understand their financial situa-tion,found potential financial crisis, and preventthe occurrence of the financial crisis, are necessary for the company’s management, as well as the interests of stakeholders.The article is divided into the following six parts:The first part of the article first introduces the topics of the background purpose of the study, and find the necessity and feasibility of establishing the fi-nancial crisis early warning model.The second part of the literature review in at home and abroad on the basis of the financial crisis early warning research, and its comments.The third part introduces the theory of real estate listed companies in financial crisis early warning. Define the domain characteristics, including the basic theory and the composition of financial crisis early warning system and representative of several financial crisis early warning model.The fourth part of the chart data and introduced the basic situation of China’s real estate market and the real estate listed companies. Discusses the performance of the real estate industry’s financial crisis, the reasons for the performance analy-sis of real estate listed companies’ financial crisis.The fifth part of empirical research. In the third chapter based on the chosen model, and use the the spss software on selected indicators descriptive statistical significance test, based on principal component analysis to build five principal components using principal component selected building the financial crisis early warning model for listed companies in China. Present data as well as previous years data to determine the accuracy of model predictions. Eventually came to the conclusion, and analyze the reasons.Part Ⅵ will make a summary of the research for this article, and put forward recommendations for the prevention and control of the financial crisis for listed real estate company. Finally, explore the limitations of this study and improvement at the prospect.The main contribution of this paper lies in the practical significance of the study, in view of the important role of the real estate in the construction of national economy and people’s livelihood. The establishing of financial crisis early warning system have very strong practical significance. Furthermore establishing the early warning model for listed real estate companies and verifying its validity is meaningful to these company. Listed real estate prevention and measures to ad-dress the financial crisis, this complete set of financial crisis early warning system for the establishment of the corresponding system of real estate listed companies have a strong guiding significance.The inadequacies of this article is, First of all, the only real estate listed com-panies within a range of indicators to establish the financial crisis early warning model did not consider the impact of the external environment factors and external economic conditions and policy factors, however, the establishment of a financial early warning model inevitably also influential. Furthermore, because the data are taken from CSMAR database, the selected sample size is limited, may not be suf-ficiently representative, is difficult to guarantee the authenticity of the data. whitewashing financial data may exist in listed companies. Finally, the selected non-financial indicators is not comprehensive enough.