Research On The Statistical Relationship Between Carriage Of Goods By Road And National Economy

Combine with the domestic and international consensus that has been achieved,this paper mainly analyzes the law development of carriage of goods by road and the relationship between national economic development and carriage of goods by road in the quantitative perspective. The carriage of goods by road price and highway freight traffic are choosen to be the indicators of carriage of goods by road industry,the food retail prices, retail prices of daily necessities, fuel retail prices, total retail sales of social consumption and industrial added value are choosen to be the indicators of national economy.But,economic data are always the unit root process,it will always show a significant correlation (known as "pseudo-regression") if there is no correlation between the economic indicators.Therefore,if we use the regression models directly rather than analyze the economic data whether they has the necessary characteristics of regression models,it will not show the correct relationship between the economic indicators. For the economic indicator datas which have a unit root process, the traditional time series methods can not be used, but the economic phenomenon often demonstrate that they have a long-run equilibrium relationship,therefore,for numbers of unite root processes,we can find the cointegration relationship between them,if they have cointegration relationship,they will have the long-run equilibrium relationship, while other factors are short-term random shocks'In this paper, we use the cointegration theory to analyze the relationship between carriage of goods by road and national economic development. In this paper,we analyze the single combination of all indicators,make sure the orders of these indicators and give out the cointegration relationship between food retail prices and carriage of goods by road price, retail prices of daily necessities carriage of goods by road price, fuel retail prices carriage of goods by road price, total retail sales of social consumption and highway freight traffic , industrial added value and highway freight traffic separately. What's more,we give out the Granger relationship analysis and VAR modal of this indicators and do research on how the national economic and carriage of goods by road industry influence each other in the quantitative perspective.