Study Of Land-Use Change Based On GIS And CA-MARKOV

Land-use change is the reflect of social and econominc development; it is not only constrained by natural factors, but also influenced by the society,economy and technology factors. It has the obvious comprehensibility and regional nature. At the same time, Land-use change plays a significant part in the regional and economic environment change. As a result, study on land-use change had become one of the hot topics in the recent research at home and abroad. The new one land use overall plan has began, study on land-use change can summarize the characteristics of land use in the past,forecast the land use condition in the future,this work has oretical and practical significance in improving land use structure and layout . Study on land-use change plays a reference role in the compilation of the land use overall plan.The Cellular Automata and Markov Model all have great advantage in the study on land-use change, while both of them have the respective shortcomings, CA -Markov model which absorbs the both benefits for Time Series and Spatial Prediction of the Markov and Cellular Automata theory, and it can well carry out the Spatial-Temporal Pattern stimulation; meanwhile, CA-Markov model also considers the land-use change suitability, and also adequately considers the effect of nature, society and economy factors about land-use change, it makes up the shortcomings about Cellular Automata and Markov Model do not comprehensively consider the influence of external factors. This paper studied the land-use change for ZhaoYuan city which based on selecting the CA -Markov model combined with the GIS soft method, it can adequately use the existing vector data material and improves the accuracy of results.This article takes Zhaoyuan as an example to study, analysing the land use status, the influence factors of land-use change and so on.Laid a good foundation for the transition suitability image collection.Then,deals with the vector data for the using in cellular automata ;In the IDRISI, using Markov module generate the land use transfer matrix and used MCE module generate the land use suitability images.Then, set the necessary conditions for CA–Markov module, run the model to forcast the land use status in 2012. This article gets the result that the agricultural land of research area still reduce and the constructive land still increase, but the speed of reducing and increasing is slowing;at the same time, land use change from 2004 to 2012 in zhaoyuan mostly distribute in the district of construction land.Finally, this article proposes two creative points of this research :using vector data in CA-MARKOV and using CA-MARKOV in county level land-use change. this article also proposes two disadvantages in choosing influse factors and defining size of cell.The result of this study proves that using CA-MARKOV in the research of county level land-use change has feasibility and veracity,this measure can use in the research other similar area.