Land Use Change And Simulation Research In Baotou City Based On MCE-CA-Markov Model

The problem of land use change under the background of urbanization has been the focus of research in recent years..Baotou City is an industrial city with a strategically important position in the northwestern region of China and North China.It is also covered by the economic zone of the national "Hu Bao Yin"and the "Hu Bao E" economic circle of the autonomous region.Under the influence of the driving force of urbanization construction and the national "Western Development" strategy,industrial development and urban construction in Baotou City require large-scale construction land,and the problems caused by the imbalance of supply and demand of land resources are becoming increasingly prominent.Therefore,how to alleviate the negative impacts of urbanization,rational planning of land,and how to develop sustainable land use planning are important research issues in the current urbanization process.This paper selects Baotou City as the research object.Firstly,the Landsat series satellite image data of 2006,2010 and 2016 will be interpreted.Using the extracted land use information,the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of land use in Baotou City from 2006 to 2016 were analyzed by geostatistics.Then use the landscape pattern index to establish the Baotou City landscape pattern evaluation system,and analyze the landscape pattern change characteristics of Baotou City from 2006 to 2016 from the overall and local scales.Then the multi-criteria evaluation(MCE)method is introduced into the CA-Markov model,and the transformation rules of the model are optimized to simulate the distribution pattern of land use in Baotou City in 2016.Compared with the traditional CA-Markov model,the simulation accuracy is improved and the effect is better.Finally,the land use distribution pattern of Baotou City in 2025 is predicted.The results show that the traditional CA-Markov and the improved MCE-CA-Markov model can achieve satisfactory results for the land use change simulation in Baotou City,and the traditional CA-Markov model has high precision for the dominant land type;but the factors considered by the MCE-CA-Markov model are more comprehensive and scientific,and the simulation effects of the various classes are relatively good,and the overall precision is higher,which is more suitable for popularization and application.In 2025,compared with 2016,the increase of cultivated land area is greater than that of water resources area.The area of ecological land for forest land and grassland has been reduced,the area of grassland has decreased,and the land area of non-local advantage of forest Iand has obvious ecological benefits.The trend of reduction should be highly valued by the local authorities.The increase in construction land was the most obvious,increasing to twice the amount in 2016,an increase of 1414.91 km2 and the urban expansion trend was obvious.