Relevance And Impact Analysis On Exports To The US, RMB Exchange Rate And China's GDP Growth

Export plays an important role in the national economy of a country, with consumption, investment known as the "Troika" to spur economic growth. Exchange rate is the most direct indicator of the international competitiveness in an open economy, which has a close relationship with export and economic growth. Traditional studies generally only explored the relationship between export and economy or between export and exchange rate. Based on the literature review of export, economic growth and exchange rate, this thesis intends to analyze the relationship between China's GDP and its exports to the United States, and the RMB real effective exchange rate. A model is established to analyze if there is significant relationship between export to the United States, the exchange rate and China's GDP. The results show that export to the United States does a positive effect to China's GDP; export to the United States is not the reason for the RMB appreciation; and put forward political recommendations on the current problems in China-US trade.China-US trade and economic relationship have developed rapidly in the twenty-first century, and the economic ties between the tow countries are increasingly close. Meanwhile, the bilateral economic and trade frictions and disputes are more and more frequent, and more and more extensive range of merchandise involve in the trade friction. Due to the enormous trade deficit of the United States, the China-US trade imbalance brings great stress to the RMB exchange rate which is in a new phase of reform period. There is increasing number of voices in the US calling for a rapid appreciation of the RMB exchange rate, and also the trade protectionism raises. In terms of trade between two countries, only both two countries benefit and benefit relatively equal, foreign trade can continue to develop. If either side benefit little or nothing from the other, it will be hard to see a healthy development of the bilateral trade. Therefore, how to actively respond and avoid trade frictions, establish a stable environment for China-US trade, alleviate the problem of China-US trade imbalance, remain the independent RMB exchange rate policy, are of great significance to the rapid development of China-US relations.The thesis contains five parts. Part I is an introduction to the thesis, which clarifies the background and the methodology used in the thesis, and reviews the literatures on the export, economic growth and exchange rate. Part II reviews the history of China-US trade and RMB exchange rate, describes the current problems in China-US trade relations. Part HI conducts qualitative analyses on export to the United States, RMB exchange rate and China's GDP during 1978 to 2007. According to the export dependence to the United States and the contribution of export to the United States, export to the United States played an important role in promoting the china's economic growth in the last thirty years. According to the analyses of the RMB exchange rate, the RMB exchange rate didn't have apparent effect to China's economic growth. Part IV conducts empirical analyses on the above data, analyzes the relationship between the three factors through co-integration and Granger causality test. Part V concludes with empirical results and provides policy recommendations.