Research On Simulation Of Land Use Spatial Pattern In Bayan Country

Research on land use change and land cover can be more comprehensive by simulation of land use spatial pattern. There is expansive terrain in china, so natural resource and social economy development present prominent difference in different areas. A small scale representative region is chosen as the research object, and the model for land use change is constituted, which can analyze the temporal and spatial change regulation and its driving mechanism, and know its causes and course, predict change trend in the future. Because of giving priority to food supplies production, the area of cultivated land increased 11612.20hm2 in the last 15 years, but forestland and unused land decreased greatly, and eco-environmental problems becomes increasingly serious. It is different from those areas where a lot of cultivated land is occupied in order to economy development, the research on simulation of spatial pattern change can provide reference for compiling land use plan and establishing policy of land exploitation and utilization, and realize sustainable utilization of regional land resources.This article takes land use database in the year 1991 and 2006 as basic data. With the model of land use dynamic change, land use dynamic change of Bayan is analyzed from 1991 to 2006. Driving factors of spatial pattern change have been given space quantization by spatial analysis function of ArcGIS. The relationship between spatial pattern of each land use type and its driving factors is explained by Binary Logistic of SPSS. ROC is compared among four land use types, and the best scale for is fixed on. Spatial pattern in 2006 is simulated by CLUE-S model, and the effect of simulation is tested. Then, on the basis of two scenarios of land use demand and different model settings, the change of land use spatial pattern in the future is simulated, and the change of land use spatial pattern is analyzed from 2006 to 2020.The results indicated that the areas of cultivated land, other agricultural land, resident and industrial and mining land, and other land increased, while the areas of the others decreased from 1991 to 2006. Comprehensive dynamic degree of land use is 0.53%; comprehensive dynamic degree of spatial change is 0.34%; the annual rate of unused land is the biggest. Main direction of land use change is that forest land and unused land converted into cultivated Land; cultivated Land, and other land are in growth state; forestland, other agricultural land, resident and industrial and mining land, grassland and unused land show situation of balance; the whole are in the state of quasi balanced. 300m×300m is fixed on as the best scale for simulation. The right ratio for simulation of land use spatial pattern in 2006 is 91.93% and the Kappa value is 0.86. It is showed that land use spatial pattern can be simulated successfully with CLUE-S model. Among three simulations with different scenarios of land use demand and model settings, simulation 3 is more suitable for trend of land use and requirements of eco-environmental protection. Main direction of land use type transfer is still that forest land and unused land converted into cultivated land from 2006 to 2020; cultivated land constantly spread, which leads to forest land,grass land and unused land of its surrounding areas shrink progressively, but the speed is reducing. Policy implementation of conversion of cropland to forest and grassland will relieve rioration situation of ecological environment.