Research On Simulation And Scenarios Of Land Use Spatial Pattern In Qianjiang County

Land use and land cover research have attracted increasing attention during the past several years. The CLUE-S model, which based on past research experience of land use and the demands number of land-use in future years, is a spatial simulation model on smaller-scale of land use change among many similar models.In this study, Qianjiang City is being used as the research area. Taking the Current land use map of Qianjiang City in2005and2010, bonding with the natural, social driving forces which affect the land use change of Qianjiang City, combining with the amount of land demand forecast results which predicted by Grey Prediction GM (1.1) Model, the CLUE-S model can be applied to forecast the spatial pattern of land use in Qianjiang City after relevant parameters settings of the CLUE-S Model. The study can reveal the land use changes regular pattern and provide effective support for land use plan of Qianjiang City, the study also provide reference value and significance in similar studies in Jianghan Plain Region. The main conclusions of the study are as follows:(l)Roc value which comes from Logistic regression analysis of raster data on different analog scale is to determine the criteria to select the appropriate analog scale of the CLUE-S model. By comparing the Roc value of different scales, we can find that Roc value of the main land use types such as arable land, transportation water conservancy land, urban and rural construction land, waters and other agricultural land reaches a maximum on200*200grid scale. So, we can conclude that CLUE-S model is suitable for Qianjiang city to simulate the spatial pattern of land use on200*200grid-scale. The result of Logistic regression analysis also indicate that the main driving forces of different land types in Qianjiang city is not the same in different time period.(2)The study predicts the spatial pattern of land use of2010and2020in Qianjiang City adopting the CLUE-S model. The results indicates that the right land area of the simulation is175,977hectares in2010, That is the correct simulated raster is43,964, which making up88.26%of the total raster. The results of Kappa index is0.7617in2010. These two results indicate that the simulations of the CLUE-S model are credible and the model is Suitable for simulating spatial pattern of land use change on county scale in Qianjiang city. The right land use of spatial simulation is190729hectares in2020, It signifies that the correct simulated raster is47682, which worth95.66%of the total raster. The results of Kappa index is0.9146in2020. The simulation result of the CLUE-S model is highly consistent with land use planning in2020of Qianjiang City.(3) There is biggish difference between the changes of the land types. Farmland, woodland, other agricultural land area show a trend of decrease, while urban and rural construction land keep the rapid growth during this time, other types of land use such as water area increased slightly.Besides, transportation water conservancy land remains constant. The order of the magnitude of land use change is urban and rural construction land>forest>farmland> other agricultural land>waters> transportation water conservancy land. Since the cardinal number of area of arable land is the biggest, so changes in the magnitude of arable land slightly smaller than the woodland.