Analysis And Simulation Of Land Use Spatial Pattern Of Fuling District

Since the birth of humanity, they have never stopped the pace of transforming the nature, human activities have not only led to changes in natural environment and the socio-economic development, but also made great changes in land use/land cover pattern at the same time. Up till the present moment, the land use/cover change (LUCC) has become a hot spot for global change research.China’s vast expanses, the regional disparities of the natural resource endowments and the development of social and economic are obvious. In addition, land utilization type, land use structure and land use degree present a significant difference between the regions. Many studies have shown that, select a small and typical area for research is an effective way to make a probing analysis of land use change and driving factors. Simulation and prediction of land use spatial pattern can provide a reasonable basis for the local land administration authority in a timely manner to adjust land use related policies and regulations. Fuling district is situated in the central area of Three Gorge district, with fragile ecosystems. Human activities not only on regional land use/land cover pattern has caused continuous disturbances, also has had a serious impact on regional eco-environment change. Through the process and mechanism of land use/cover change research, we can more clearly understand the succession of the regional ecological environment, and its natural, social and economic development. At the same time, it can improve regional eco-environmental quality and sustainable utilization of land resources and other decision makers.This study take Fuling district for example, Based on the land use data of2005,2009and2012. Using GIS to analysis the land use space pattern features during2005-2012.Using Binary Logistic return analysis method to analysis the relationship between the various types of land use and land among the driving factors. Using CLUE-S model to simulate the spatial pattern of land use in the study area in2012, and the simulation results and accuracy is validated by Kappa index. Finally, use the land use data of2012in the study area as data source, based on the special characteristics of Fuling land use, combined with the regional development plan, build four scenarios, and analysis main changes that may occur in land use spatial pattern during the period. And then, Under different development objectives, the CLUE-S model was used to simulate land use spatial pattern in four different scenarios in Fuling district in2020. The results reveal that:①During the2005-2009years, the spatial pattern characteristics of land use changed obvious in Fuling district. During this period, crop-land dropped sharply, the area was down from an initial40.51%to35.04%.Construction land grows rapidly, by original of4.41%rose to7.1%; With the implementation of the policy of returning farmland to forest and ecological construction, The forestland and garden were in a growth trend. Thanks to the three gorges project impoundment, the water area has increased. During2005-2009, the transfer between the various land types are huge, especially corp-land to forestland, crop-land to construction land, forestland to crop-land changed a lot. Rapid economic development and urbanization have a lot of effect on landscape pattern. Landscapes are threatened by human activities, in varying degrees. Landscape fragmentation levels increased significantly. During the2009-2012years, the spatial pattern of Fuling district Showing a relatively stable characteristic. Both the changes of each land use type in number and spaces are small.②This paper used Binary Logistic regression to analysis the relationship between the various types of land use and land among the driving factors. The results show that: In a short period, topography, climate and other natural factors impacts on regional land use change is unlikely. In the study period, due to the rapid economic development in the study area, the socio-economic factors such as population, economy and Infrastructure construction have a great impact on Land use type. It can be seen the rapid development of economy and urbanization in recent years are main motivations of land use change in recent years in Fuling district. Regression analysis by ROC test results that the value of each type of land use were greater than0.7, indicating that the result is more reasonable. Using the CLUE-S model to simulate the spatial pattern of land use in2012, the Kappa value of land use spatial pattern in2012is0.8004. It is indicated that CLUE-S model can successfully simulate and predict the spatial pattern of land use in the region. ③Food security target although can guarantee regional of food sufficient, but has may caused part area soil erosion and has potential threat on ecological security; Economic development target of land uses on arable land of against larger, but on regional ecological service features of improved contribution minimum. Targeted research areas of ecological security index has the highest ecological value, but larger threats to food security and economic development; In contrast, comprehensive development objectives taking into account regional food production, economic construction and ecological protection needs, is the most desirable future land use pattern in Fuling district.