The Empirical Analysis Of Farm Product Trade And Farmers' Income

There are three main questions of the research in this article: First, the situation of the development of farm products trade and farmers'income; Second, the mechanisms and channels which create influence to farmers'income from the development of farm products trade; Third, the relationship between farm products trade and farmers'income.Our research is started on the concept and development situation of farm products trade and farmers'income. First, we analyze the development situation of export, import, net export and farmers'income, and then we describe the mechanisms which create influence to farmers'income respectively from export and import. On these bases, the relationship between farm products trade and farmers'income is analyzed empirically. We select the period between 1981 and 2007 as the sample, and analyze the long-term and short-term relationship between farmers'income and export, import and the sum of trade respectively through co-integration test, granger test and building the error correction model. After above research, the strategy of farm products trade and farmers'income is further discussed.The findings indicate: First, farm products trade can promote the growth of farmers'income in certain conditions and discuss the mechanisms from export and import. Second, It's tested out that respectively export , import ,the sum of trade and farmers'income have long-term stable equilibrium relationship. The influence of export is the biggest; the influence of trade is smaller and the import is mix mum. But all the influence is positive and that is, the development of farm products trade can promote the growth of farmers'income in varying degree. Third, the error correction models tell us that the influence of import is not notable, but the influence of export and the sum of trade is notable. And in all, the present farmers'income is much influenced by the last period'. Last, in the level of 1%, export, import and the sum of trade is all granger cause of farmers'income. But the latter is not the granger cause.In all, this thesis not only analyzes the influence of the sum of trade to farmers'income, also analyze the influence of export and import respectively. In addition, the mechanisms and channels are discussed. This article enriches the content of research on trade and provide theoretical basis for designing rural trade policy, which certainly has academic significance and practical significance.