A Integrated Land Use Simulation System And Its Implementation

Land resources are important bases for human existence. Land Use / Land Cover Change (LUCC) is an important content to one of the researches in global changes and sustainable development. The LUCC research includes mainly LUCC situation, driving mechanism, effects, simulation of model and sustainability. LUCC modeling is one of the core content of the LUCC study and used in analyzing the interaction between land-use change and impact factor, such as social, economic, technical and natural environment, and exploring spatial and temporal evolution mechanism of land-use and predict future changes.At present, LUCC simulation models include mainly system dynamics model, cellular automaton model, multi-agent model and CLUE-S model. CLUE-S model is a dynamic spatial and temporal changes simulation model in land use, it has a strong dynamic simulation capability for temporal and spatial changes, can effectively explore temporal and spatial evolution laws of the future multi-scale land-use.Currently, the research for CLUE-S model are in two ways, one is a direct reference to simulate the regional land-use and space change, and the other is improving relative function for the model in the case of analyzing specific regional characteristics. In spite of the CLUE-S model has a certain amount of improvement in previous studies, CLUE-S model and the improved model are composed of other independent loose modules, such independent loose construction of the module has led to inefficiency, red steps and a high error probability. In order to solving the model structure problems brought about by the loose, this paper presents the model of non-space modules, space modules, the map management module to achieve seamless integration and then build an efficient, simple and practical integrated system. The integrated system uses bottom development for part of module combine with secondary development of GIS, uses gray Markov chain model, multivariate linear regression model, trend line analysis to construct non-spatial module; uses Newton-Raphason iterative algorithm and non-parametric analysis to achieve Logistic regression analysis, respectively, as well as the ROC curve of the accuracy of testing; use relative interface of ArcEngine component library shows simulation results, and generates driving forces. Finally, Taking YongDing County of Zhangjiajie City as a case study area, the regression coefficients and curve with Logistic regression analysis as well as ROC curve comparison test in SPSS, regression coefficient, the distribution curve and size exactly same, and the final simulation results shown same simulated map with Arcgis.The results show that the integrated simulation system is more efficient, simple and convenient, and can be effective simulation future land-use change. Our study will greatly enrich the CLUE-S model and its application, is useful for building a land-use change simulation model with regional characteristics.