Simulation Of Land Use Change In Shenzhen Based On CLUE-S Model

The spatial simulation and analysis of land use will help the land management department to better understand and grasp the spatial and temporal rules of urban land use and promote the sustainable use of urban land and the sustainable development of social economy.As a typical representative of the rapid urbanization area,the land use change in Shenzhen is significant,and the construction land resources are becoming exhausted.The contradiction between land supply and demand is especially prominent,so that the study of urban land use is also more urgent.In this paper,taking Shenzhen City as an example,analyzing the characteristics of land use change in Shenzhen City from 2009 to 2013.Then based on the natural and socio-economic driving factors of traditional land use change,the density of traffic service facilities,commercial service facilities and other public service facilities generated by the new poi data were selected as the driving factors of land use change.After that,The driving force of land use change in Shenzhen was analyzed by Auto-Logistic regression method.Finally,based on the CLUE-S model,the spatial distribution of land use in Shenzhen City from 2009 to 2013 was simulated.And the spatial distribution pattern of land use in Shenzhen under the three scenarios including natural evolution,cultivated land protection and ecological protection were forecasted.The main conclusions are as follows:(1)Construction land,forest land and garden land was the main types of land use in Shenzhen City.Compared with 2009,the area of cultivated land and construction land increased in 2013,and the area of garden land,forest land,grassland,water area and other land decreased in 2013.Among them,the new cultivated land was mainly from the garden,the new construction land was mainly from the garden,woodland,waters and other land.From 2009 to 2013,the spatial distribution patterns of construction land and forest land were relatively stable,and the other five land use types were not stable.In contrast,these five types of land use were prone to change.(2)The ROC values of seven land use types under Auto-Logistic regression were all greater than those of traditional Logistic regression,and all were more than 0.75,which indicated that the Auto-Logistic regression model established in this paper is effective and and the driving factors chosen in this paper can explain land use change in Shenzhen.(3)In simulation of the spatial of land use of 2013,the kappa index was 0.896,much larger than 0.75,which indicated that the model and related parameters can be used to forecast the future spatial distribution of land use in Shenzhen.(4)Three forecast results show that,under the natural development scenario,the land use change is mainly from Bao'an District,Longgang District and Nanshan District in the west and north of Shenzhen,and is the smallest in Yantian District and Luohu District in the south of Shenzhen,the rest of the areas are the second;The decrease of the cultivated land is smaller in the case of cultivated land protection situation,and the distribution of cultivated land is concentrated,which can effectively protect the safety of urban arable land.The distribution of spatial change is basically the same as that of natural evolution under ecological protection scenario.However,the ecological protection scenario can protect the construction land extended orderly,without damaging the ecological environment in the space larger areas such as Bao'an District and Longgang District,and it can also ensure that the remaining ecological land is not occupied by the construction land and can guarantee the sustainable development of the city's ecology in areas developed more mature such as Futian District.