Research On Reliability Determination And Route Choice Of Intermodal Transport Based On Fuzzy Fault Tree Analysis

Intermodal transport, as an advanced transport organization form, is an important part of the modern logistics system. Compared with the single transport mode, intermodal transport can take into account the advantages of all modes of transport, and characterized by the accessible procedures, little intermediate links, fast speed, high service quality and convenient continuous management of logistics service suppliers. With the development of modern logistics, the application of intermodal transport has become an effective method for the logistics companies to improve the effectiveness and reduce the costs of logistics.With the rapid growing of logistics, the trend of transport demand is to reduce the transport time and cost, to improve the transport reliability and service quality. So, reliability has gradually become a significant measurement indices of the intermodal transport level.Aiming at the problem of intermodal transport route choice based on reliability, this thesis has studied these aspects:Firstly, according to the intermodal transport process and FTA, this paper has divided the intermodal transport units and studied their reliabilities. The paper divided the intermodal transport system into transport unit, storage unit and material handling unit, and analyzed the factors affecting the reliability of these units with qualitative method. After that, this paper applied the fuzzy fault tree analysis method to quantitatively calculate the equivalent repair rate of the intermodal transport units using the equivalent repair rate of the factors as basic data. At the same time, it calculated the importance degree of every influencing factor and the weakness of these units.Then, this thesis gave an elaborate study on the reliability of intermodal transport routes based on the GO methodology. This paper has applied GO methodology to analyze the structural relationships of the units in the intermodal transport routes and get the reliability model of intermodal transport routes. After that, the intermodal transport route choice model based on the reliability theory is founded. The objective function of the model is to minimize the generalized costs consisting of the total costs of intermodal transport and the penalty costs for violating restrictions of time windows. The constraints of the model are the reliability of the intermodal transport. Genetic Algorithm is designed to solve the model.At last, a real instance that the intermodal transport route choice from Rotterdam to Harbin is taken to demonstrate the correctness and applicability of the model. It programmed by MATLAB software and got the optimal solution that fit with the reliability demand and minimum generalized costs.