Research On Manufacturing Trade And Employment Of China

Employment is an important goal of economic development. There is an indivisible relationship between employment and Trade. Foreign trade will affect the employment elasticity and demand. The main channels are:the expansion of aggregate demand; technology transfer and spillovers; changes in commodity structure. How to pull employment and enhance the quality of employment is an important issue that we will face up with in the new period.In the theoretical model, we started from micro-enterprises production costs and take into account the lag of labor adjustment. The empirical analysis could be divided into two parts: overall analysis and extended analysis. In the overall analysis, There are a lot of factors which affect labor demand, such as wage, interest rates, exchange rates, exports, imports, industrial added value, and so on. In the extended analysis, there is an intrinsic relationship between factors in trade, trade competitiveness and labor demand.Even not change the total amount of foreign trade, the change of trade structure will also affect the labor demand, we demonstrated it from theoretical and empirical aspects. And The increase of labor factors in trade would raise the short-term employment demand, but lack of long-term employment demand; and the increase of capital and technology factors in trade would raise the long-term employment demand, but lack of short-term employment demand. Further more, we should not just consider the number of jobs, but also concerned about the quality of employment, namely, "gold content of employment". In addition, the industries have consistent comparative advantage would full of short-term employment demand, but lack of long-term employment demand. The industries in the conversion from comparative disadvantage to comparative advantage would full of long-term employment demand.